TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139825
Played Sep 16Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115115––––
Michal Machelski
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:53 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Michal Machelski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 65.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 53–16 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 16 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-16 in 69
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 37 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1343 vs Machelski 1316
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Machelski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 30% vs Machelski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +1 · Machelski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Lewczuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.53 / Machelski 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Lewczuk)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13139825
Lewczuk1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 171 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it96% 111 of 116
Up 1–0, closes it83% 130 of 156
Machelski2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 113 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back19% 37 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk7wins
AwayMachelski3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk60%3 of 5
AwayMachelski20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk5Machelski5n = 10split evenly
S2Lewczuk8Machelski2n = 10Lewczuk took 8 of 10
S3Lewczuk4Machelski6n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S4Lewczuk4Machelski6n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S5Lewczuk4Machelski1n = 5Lewczuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukMachelskiL − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.838.8+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 958 vs 417 / 113051.4%36.9%492 / 958 vs 417 / 1130Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.53/Machelski 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.1%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk47111195113M. Machelski4679111182
WSep 3 · 18:30M. Lewczuk4071111113M. Machelski31116861
WJun 22 · 22:25M. Lewczuk4111118113M. Machelski18511111
LJun 19 · 24:45M. Lewczuk52111179142M. Machelski49561111163
LJun 16 · 24:25M. Lewczuk371081181M. Machelski4212118113
WJun 15 · 20:45M. Lewczuk4291111113M. Machelski32118941
WJun 8 · 22:25M. Lewczuk48111178113M. Machelski4166111172
WJun 1 · 21:35M. Lewczuk549111211113M. Machelski4611714862
WMay 26 · 24:45M. Lewczuk521011119113M. Machelski4212571172
LMay 19 · 02:20M. Lewczuk25118421M. Machelski4181111113
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312LSep 16 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.30810130A. Skupinski3.401112153LSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760LSep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10591112102Z. Nocun1.671111910123LSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113WSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.91113110J. Zelezik1.801311133LSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.0071240Z. Nocun1.731114113
M. Machelski10
LSep 16 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.1011811113M. Machelski1.67611541WSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113LSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950LSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.55119791M. Machelski2.3081111113WSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113LSep 14 · 23:10M. Machelski1.73512891A. Staniczek1.92111011113LSep 14 · 22:00M. Machelski3.45129551M. Warzecha1.23101111113WSep 11 · 05:05W. Stechly2.907780M. Machelski1.321111113
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