TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139183
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1187111311911119
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 101 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 61.2%
101 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 3–7 Mateusz Baran Michal Machelski has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Baran
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1303 vs Baran 1329
Baran
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 40% vs Baran 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Baran 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -3 · Baran -1
Machelski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.10 / Baran 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Baran)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13139183
Machelski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 113 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back19% 37 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Baran1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 43 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it76% 25 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski3wins
AwayBaran7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderBaran leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski0%0 of 3
AwayBaran57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski3Baran7n = 10Baran took 7 of 10
S2Machelski3Baran7n = 10Baran took 7 of 10
S3Machelski5Baran5n = 10split evenly
S4Machelski3Baran4n = 7Baran took 4 of 7
S5Machelski3Baran4n = 7Baran took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiBaranM − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.145.3−4.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 1129 vs 71 / 13336.9%53.4%416 / 1129 vs 71 / 133Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranMachelski 2.10/Baran 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski1411030M. Baran341112113
LAug 31 · 19:50M. Machelski246990M. Baran331111113
WAug 27 · 02:20M. Machelski56811127183M. Baran501121011162
LAug 26 · 18:20M. Machelski2696110M. Baran351111133
LAug 10 · 01:45M. Machelski4611681652M. Baran514111114113
LAug 9 · 16:15M. Machelski53108111592M. Baran531211613113
LAug 6 · 04:40M. Machelski4111413852M. Baran506111111113
WAug 5 · 22:40M. Machelski49871211113M. Baran46111110862
WAug 2 · 22:10M. Machelski531313115113M. Baran48151191122
LAug 2 · 19:40M. Machelski49111181182M. Baran53991113113
M. Machelski10
LSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113LSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950LSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.55119791M. Machelski2.3081111113WSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113LSep 14 · 23:10M. Machelski1.73512891A. Staniczek1.92111011113LSep 14 · 22:00M. Machelski3.45129551M. Warzecha1.23101111113WSep 11 · 05:05W. Stechly2.907780M. Machelski1.321111113LSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123
M. Baran10
LSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:25A. Skupinski2.256740M. Baran1.571111113LSep 16 · 04:40J. Skorupa1.957141111113M. Baran1.77111261342LSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.851111113M. Baran1.858960WSep 16 · 01:55J. Michalik1.92081141M. Baran1.7211118113WSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113WSep 15 · 23:30K. Rybak4.001111681M. Baran1.1871311113LSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111WSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113LSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641
Upcoming Matches
M. Machelski
M. Baran
Sep 16 · 20:30M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 16 · 21:20M. Baran2.10J. Skorupa1.67—Sep 16 · 22:55M. Baran2.63K. Kwiatkowski1.44—Sep 17 · 24:10M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.20A. Fomin1.61—Sep 17 · 02:35M. Baran1.67M. Machelski2.10—Sep 17 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 17 · 16:35M. Baran—G. Mucha——Sep 17 · 18:10M. Baran—K. Gudzik——Sep 17 · 18:55M. Baran—M. Guzik——
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