TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139832
Played Sep 16Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11671112106111412
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 100 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 4–5 Andriej Fomin Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:53What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1573 vs Fomin 1531
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 80% vs Fomin 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 80% vs Fomin 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +1 · Fomin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kwiatkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.83 / Fomin 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13139832
Kwiatkowski1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Fomin1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski4wins
AwayFomin5wins
6 of 9 to a deciderFomin leads 5–4, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski75%3 of 4
AwayFomin80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski4Fomin5n = 9Fomin took 5 of 9
S2Kwiatkowski2Fomin7n = 9Fomin took 7 of 9
S3Kwiatkowski5Fomin4n = 9Kwiatkowski took 5 of 9
S4Kwiatkowski5Fomin3n = 8Kwiatkowski took 5 of 8
S5Kwiatkowski3Fomin3n = 6split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiFominK − FBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match46.348.6−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 246 vs 531 / 90644.7%58.6%110 / 246 vs 531 / 906Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.83/Fomin 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 24 · 23:30K. Kwiatkowski4511811962A. Fomin49911711113
WAug 24 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski561531116113A. Fomin56131171872
WJul 29 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski50118911113A. Fomin4991111992
LJul 29 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski611711141182A. Fomin64199169113
WJul 27 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski571711711113A. Fomin5119811672
LJul 22 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski2869130A. Fomin371111153
LJul 22 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski31751181A. Fomin4211119113
WJul 10 · 01:25K. Kwiatkowski4011711113A. Fomin33911491
LJul 9 · 19:20K. Kwiatkowski4977171172A. Fomin561111158113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113LSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312WSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981
A. Fomin10
LSep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.201161011113A. Fomin1.6191112972WSep 16 · 17:20A. Skupinski3.5011811652A. Fomin1.28811911113WSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113WSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 13 · 02:45M. Wolny2.056760A. Fomin1.651111113WSep 13 · 01:35A. Fomin1.83101112113O. Jedrzejowski1.831251091WSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113LSep 12 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.83111111113A. Fomin1.86581391WSep 12 · 21:35K. Malcher2.753114141A. Fomin1.4011911163LSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.61M. Lewczuk2.20—Sep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36M. Baran3.00—Sep 16 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57M. Machelski2.25—Sep 17 · 24:35K. Kwiatkowski1.73J. Skorupa2.00—Sep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.91A. Fomin1.80—Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——Sep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski—D. Molenda——
A. Fomin
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