TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139898
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5113111012––––
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:04 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 52 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 65.1%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 16–54 Miroslaw Lewczuk Michal Machelski has won 16 of their 70 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Lewczuk beat Machelski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:04What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-54 in 70
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 38 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1335 vs Lewczuk 1330
Machelski
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 60% vs Lewczuk 40%
Machelski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 50% vs Lewczuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski +3 · Lewczuk -2
Machelski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Lewczuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.38 / Lewczuk 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Lewczuk)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13139898
Machelski2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog32% won 113 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back19% 37 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Lewczuk1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 171 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it96% 111 of 116
Up 1–0, closes it83% 130 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski2wins
AwayLewczuk8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski20%1 of 5
AwayLewczuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski5Lewczuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Machelski1Lewczuk9n = 10Lewczuk took 9 of 10
S3Machelski5Lewczuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Machelski5Lewczuk4n = 9Machelski took 5 of 9
S5Machelski1Lewczuk4n = 5Lewczuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiLewczukM − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.544.6−8.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 1135 vs 491 / 95837%51.3%420 / 1135 vs 491 / 958Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukMachelski 2.38/Lewczuk 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.1%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 18:55M. Machelski188550M. Lewczuk331111113
LSep 4 · 24:35M. Machelski4679111182M. Lewczuk47111195113
LSep 3 · 18:30M. Machelski31116861M. Lewczuk4071111113
LJun 22 · 22:25M. Machelski18511111M. Lewczuk4111118113
WJun 19 · 24:45M. Machelski49561111163M. Lewczuk52111179142
WJun 16 · 24:25M. Machelski4212118113M. Lewczuk371081181
LJun 15 · 20:45M. Machelski32118941M. Lewczuk4291111113
LJun 8 · 22:25M. Machelski4166111172M. Lewczuk48111178113
LJun 1 · 21:35M. Machelski4611714862M. Lewczuk549111211113
LMay 26 · 24:45M. Machelski4212571172M. Lewczuk521011119113
M. Machelski10
WSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152WSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.2071111113J. Skorupa1.61115961WSep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25651513113A. Fomin1.571111131182LSep 16 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.1011811113M. Machelski1.67611541LSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550WSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113LSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950LSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.55119791M. Machelski2.3081111113
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113LSep 16 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.258930A. Fomin1.571111113WSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57351111122M. Lewczuk2.25111198143LSep 16 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.67118101172M. Baran2.10511128113WSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550WSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312LSep 16 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.30810130A. Skupinski3.401112153LSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760LSep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10591112102Z. Nocun1.671111910123
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