TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139845
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611119116911115
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:51 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Kacper Kwiatkowski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 57.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 7–6 Kacper Kwiatkowski Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Kwiatkowski beat Machelski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:51What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1317 vs Kwiatkowski 1537
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 220 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 60% vs Kwiatkowski 40%
Machelski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 50% vs Kwiatkowski 70%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski +2 · Kwiatkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.25 / Kwiatkowski 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13139845
Machelski2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog32% won 113 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back19% 37 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Kwiatkowski1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 33 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski4wins
AwayKwiatkowski6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski42.9%3 of 7
AwayKwiatkowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski7Kwiatkowski3n = 10Machelski took 7 of 10
S2Machelski5Kwiatkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Machelski5Kwiatkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Machelski4Kwiatkowski4n = 8split evenly
S5Machelski1Kwiatkowski5n = 6Kwiatkowski took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiKwiatkowskiM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.741.5+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 1134 vs 111 / 24937%44.6%419 / 1134 vs 111 / 249Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiMachelski 2.25/Kwiatkowski 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 15:50M. Machelski162950K. Kwiatkowski331111113
LAug 24 · 24:35M. Machelski4611991162K. Kwiatkowski47511119113
LAug 23 · 18:30M. Machelski42111110552K. Kwiatkowski48861211113
WAug 16 · 23:45M. Machelski45111112113K. Kwiatkowski37991451
WAug 16 · 15:50M. Machelski4513711143K. Kwiatkowski3811114121
LAug 13 · 01:30M. Machelski48117119102K. Kwiatkowski41611111123
LAug 12 · 19:30M. Machelski49111610572K. Kwiatkowski568141211113
LJul 30 · 24:35M. Machelski44116111242K. Kwiatkowski511311610113
WJul 29 · 18:30M. Machelski331111113K. Kwiatkowski229760
WJul 26 · 24:00M. Machelski49911117113K. Kwiatkowski4211921192
M. Machelski10
LSep 17 · 01:00M. Machelski2.3853100M. Lewczuk1.531111123WSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.2071111113J. Skorupa1.61115961WSep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25651513113A. Fomin1.571111131182LSep 16 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.1011811113M. Machelski1.67611541LSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550WSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113LSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950LSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.55119791M. Machelski2.3081111113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 17 · 24:35J. Skorupa2.0011145113K. Kwiatkowski1.734121181LSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113LSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57351111122M. Lewczuk2.25111198143WSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122WSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113LSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312WSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Machelski
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.91A. Fomin1.80—Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——Sep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski—D. Molenda——Sep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 18 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 18 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.