TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139791
Played Sep 17Finished
Jakub Skorupa
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141412511118––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Skorupa above · Kacper Kwiatkowski below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 54.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Skorupa 6–6 Kacper Kwiatkowski Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:39What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorupa 1401 vs Kwiatkowski 1519
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorupa 40% vs Kwiatkowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorupa 40% vs Kwiatkowski 60%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorupa -3 · Kwiatkowski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorupa 2.00 / Kwiatkowski 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13139791
Skorupa2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 96 of 292
Down 0–1, comes back15% 25 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 97
Kwiatkowski1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 33 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorupa5wins
AwayKwiatkowski5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorupa60%3 of 5
AwayKwiatkowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorupa5Kwiatkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Skorupa6Kwiatkowski4n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S3Skorupa5Kwiatkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Skorupa7Kwiatkowski2n = 9Skorupa took 7 of 9
S5Skorupa1Kwiatkowski4n = 5Kwiatkowski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorupaKwiatkowskiS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.141.6+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorupaKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 657 vs 111 / 25048.3%44.4%317 / 657 vs 111 / 250Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiSkorupa 2.00/Kwiatkowski 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 21:20J. Skorupa4999121182K. Kwiatkowski521111109113
LAug 22 · 15:25J. Skorupa4111511592K. Kwiatkowski50811911113
WAug 19 · 02:20J. Skorupa531014711113K. Kwiatkowski48121211492
LAug 18 · 18:20J. Skorupa527111111122K. Kwiatkowski54111388143
WJul 25 · 23:10J. Skorupa4181111113K. Kwiatkowski27114751
LJul 25 · 17:10J. Skorupa541011812132K. Kwiatkowski531251110153
WJul 24 · 01:25J. Skorupa351113113K. Kwiatkowski2451180
LJul 23 · 19:20J. Skorupa361110871K. Kwiatkowski4281211113
WJul 22 · 22:35J. Skorupa44111111113K. Kwiatkowski30651361
WJul 22 · 15:00J. Skorupa46111410113K. Kwiatkowski369121231
J. Skorupa10
LSep 16 · 23:20J. Skorupa2.631149111A. Fomin1.4491111133LSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.2071111113J. Skorupa1.61115961LSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113WSep 16 · 04:40J. Skorupa1.957141111113M. Baran1.77111261342WSep 16 · 03:05J. Michalik1.861181451J. Skorupa1.7891116113LSep 16 · 02:20K. Rybak4.10615711113J. Skorupa1.17111311682LSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100WSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111LSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152LSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113LSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57351111122M. Lewczuk2.25111198143WSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122WSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113LSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312WSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Skorupa
Nothing scheduled
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.91A. Fomin1.80—Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——Sep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski—D. Molenda——Sep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 18 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 18 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.