TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139871
Played Sep 16Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
3115111191181214
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:52 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 95 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 59.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 5–4 Miroslaw Lewczuk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Lewczuk beat Kwiatkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1583 vs Lewczuk 1344
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 239 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 80% vs Lewczuk 40%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 90% vs Lewczuk 40%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +2 · Lewczuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.57 / Lewczuk 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13139871
Kwiatkowski1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 33 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Lewczuk2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 67 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski5wins
AwayLewczuk4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski66.7%4 of 6
AwayLewczuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski6Lewczuk3n = 9Kwiatkowski took 6 of 9
S2Kwiatkowski3Lewczuk6n = 9Lewczuk took 6 of 9
S3Kwiatkowski6Lewczuk3n = 9Kwiatkowski took 6 of 9
S4Kwiatkowski4Lewczuk3n = 7Kwiatkowski took 4 of 7
S5Kwiatkowski1Lewczuk2n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiLewczukK − LBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match34.634.9−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 247 vs 492 / 95844.9%51.4%111 / 247 vs 492 / 958Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.57/Lewczuk 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 16 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski3411811312M. Lewczuk47911511113
WAug 24 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski3851111113M. Lewczuk22115421
WAug 24 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski48117118113M. Lewczuk4481181162
WAug 19 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski331111113M. Lewczuk81520
LAug 19 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski21113431M. Lewczuk4181111113
WAug 17 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski44111011123M. Lewczuk336125101
WAug 17 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski3811114123M. Lewczuk345811101
LAug 11 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski3581131122M. Lewczuk521111118113
LAug 10 · 16:15K. Kwiatkowski206950M. Lewczuk331111113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122WSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113LSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312WSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 16 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.258930A. Fomin1.571111113LSep 16 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.67118101172M. Baran2.10511128113WSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550WSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312LSep 16 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.30810130A. Skupinski3.401112153LSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760LSep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10591112102Z. Nocun1.671111910123LSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113WSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 16 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57M. Machelski2.25—Sep 17 · 24:35K. Kwiatkowski1.80J. Skorupa1.91—Sep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.91A. Fomin1.80—Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——Sep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski—D. Molenda——Sep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 18 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski—H. Tkaczyk——
M. Lewczuk
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