TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139843
Played Sep 16Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12108111113116811
Mateusz Baran
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:52 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 67.3%
101 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 2–2 Mateusz Baran Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kwiatkowski beat Baran 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1537 vs Baran 1371
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 60% vs Baran 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 80% vs Baran 60%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -1 · Baran +3
Baran
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.36 / Baran 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13139843
Kwiatkowski1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 33 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Baran3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 20 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back29% 9 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski2wins
AwayBaran2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski50%2 of 4
AwayBarann = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski4Baran0n = 4Kwiatkowski took 4 of 4
S2Kwiatkowski2Baran2n = 4split evenly
S3Kwiatkowski1Baran3n = 4Baran took 3 of 4
S4Kwiatkowski2Baran1n = 3Kwiatkowski took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiBaranK − BBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match40.837.5+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 249 vs 75 / 13844.6%54.4%111 / 249 vs 75 / 138Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.36/Baran 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.6%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski50128111182M. Baran511011136113
WSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski4611157133M. Baran4161311111
WAug 26 · 04:40K. Kwiatkowski341112113M. Baran2141070
LAug 25 · 22:40K. Kwiatkowski33115981M. Baran3741111113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152LSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57351111122M. Lewczuk2.25111198143WSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122WSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113LSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312WSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113
M. Baran10
WSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113WSep 16 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.67118101172M. Baran2.10511128113WSep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.201161011113A. Fomin1.6191112972LSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192LSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:25A. Skupinski2.256740M. Baran1.571111113LSep 16 · 04:40J. Skorupa1.957141111113M. Baran1.77111261342LSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.851111113M. Baran1.858960WSep 16 · 01:55J. Michalik1.92081141M. Baran1.7211118113LAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 17 · 24:35K. Kwiatkowski1.80J. Skorupa1.91—Sep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.91A. Fomin1.80—Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——Sep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski—D. Molenda——Sep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 18 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——
M. Baran
Sep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.20A. Fomin1.61—Sep 17 · 02:35M. Baran1.61M. Machelski2.20—Sep 17 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 17 · 16:35M. Baran—G. Mucha——Sep 17 · 18:10M. Baran—K. Gudzik——Sep 17 · 18:55M. Baran—M. Guzik——Sep 17 · 19:40M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 17 · 21:00M. Baran—G. Mucha——Sep 17 · 22:10M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 17 · 23:45M. Baran—Z. Nocun——
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