TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139828
Played Sep 16Finished
Jakub Skorupa
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1194119111113––
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:51 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Skorupa above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 79 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Andriej Fomin at 70.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Skorupa 6–31 Andriej Fomin Jakub Skorupa has won 6 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-31 in 37
Fomin
Correct
gap of 25 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorupa 1401 vs Fomin 1535
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorupa 40% vs Fomin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorupa 50% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorupa -2 · Fomin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Fomin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorupa 2.63 / Fomin 1.44
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Fomin)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13139828
Skorupa2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 96 of 292
Down 0–1, comes back15% 25 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 97
Fomin1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 275 of 379
Up 2–0, closes it98% 155 of 158
Up 1–0, closes it90% 213 of 238
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorupa3wins
AwayFomin7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorupa50%3 of 6
AwayFomin100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorupa6Fomin4n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S2Skorupa4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S3Skorupa4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S4Skorupa2Fomin7n = 9Fomin took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorupaFominS − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.442.2−3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorupaFominBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 657 vs 533 / 91048.3%58.6%317 / 657 vs 533 / 910Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominSkorupa 2.63/Fomin 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 23:20J. Skorupa351149111A. Fomin4491111133
LAug 31 · 17:20J. Skorupa361191151A. Fomin4413119113
LAug 30 · 02:45J. Skorupa341141091A. Fomin4391112113
WAug 29 · 18:25J. Skorupa4311156113A. Fomin407131191
LAug 27 · 03:55J. Skorupa409129101A. Fomin44111011123
WAug 26 · 21:55J. Skorupa351111133A. Fomin2898110
WAug 17 · 06:00J. Skorupa48126115143A. Fomin491011511122
LAug 5 · 23:20J. Skorupa346111071A. Fomin3911512113
LAug 5 · 17:20J. Skorupa46119111142A. Fomin49511139113
LAug 3 · 08:45J. Skorupa334101181A. Fomin4211128113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.2071111113J. Skorupa1.61115961LSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113WSep 16 · 04:40J. Skorupa1.957141111113M. Baran1.77111261342WSep 16 · 03:05J. Michalik1.861181451J. Skorupa1.7891116113LSep 16 · 02:20K. Rybak4.10615711113J. Skorupa1.17111311682LSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100WSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111LSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113
A. Fomin10
WSep 16 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.258930A. Fomin1.571111113LSep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25651513113A. Fomin1.571111131182LSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122LSep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.201161011113A. Fomin1.6191112972WSep 16 · 17:20A. Skupinski3.5011811652A. Fomin1.28811911113WSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113WSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 13 · 02:45M. Wolny2.056760A. Fomin1.651111113WSep 13 · 01:35A. Fomin1.83101112113O. Jedrzejowski1.831251091WSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113
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