TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141165
Played Sep 17Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1187111113611––
Mateusz Baran
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:44 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 78 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 60.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 4–2 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1473 vs Baran 1403
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Baran 80%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 70% vs Baran 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +1 · Baran +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.53 / Baran 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Nocun)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13141165
Nocun1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 325 of 492
Up 2–0, closes it93% 156 of 167
Up 1–0, closes it85% 234 of 275
Baran2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 25 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeNocun4wins
AwayBaran2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderNocun leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun66.7%2 of 3
AwayBaran33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun3Baran3n = 6split evenly
S2Nocun5Baran1n = 6Nocun took 5 of 6
S3Nocun6Baran0n = 6Nocun took 6 of 6
S4Nocun1Baran3n = 4Baran took 3 of 4
S5Nocun1Baran2n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricNocunBaranN − BBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match42.736.2+6.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime675 / 1127 vs 77 / 14159.9%54.6%675 / 1127 vs 77 / 141Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.53/Baran 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 10 · 23:45Z. Nocun331111113M. Baran176560
LSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun4481111862M. Baran48117811113
WAug 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun331111113M. Baran173770
WAug 6 · 17:45Z. Nocun4171111123M. Baran311155101
WAug 2 · 23:45Z. Nocun571011169113M. Baran52126141192
LAug 2 · 15:50Z. Nocun4812811982M. Baran521011911113
Z. Nocun10
WSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.731111614113K. Gudzik2.0035111682WSep 17 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.12811611113K. Rybak4.8511711962LSep 17 · 03:05W. Stechly5.051011711113Z. Nocun1.1112111772LSep 17 · 02:20A. Krezel2.60981111113Z. Nocun1.4011114642WSep 17 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.3711911153A. Staniczek2.758119131WSep 17 · 24:20Z. Nocun1.8911911113M. Warzecha1.82511971WSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.1271111123K. Rybak4.851149101WSep 16 · 21:05J. Slawomir2.00113981Z. Nocun1.7251111113LSep 16 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.85111166113Z. Nocun1.8087111172WSep 16 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.301111113A. Staniczek3.004540
M. Baran10
LSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153WSep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.2071191292M. Baran1.611161110113LSep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.208711101A. Fomin1.6111119123WSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113WSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113WSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113WSep 16 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.67118101172M. Baran2.10511128113WSep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.201161011113A. Fomin1.6191112972LSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192LSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111
Upcoming Matches
Z. Nocun
M. Baran
Sep 17 · 18:10M. Baran1.73K. Gudzik2.00—Sep 17 · 18:55M. Baran3.50M. Guzik1.28—Sep 17 · 19:40M. Baran1.61M. Brunner2.20—Sep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.83G. Mucha1.83—Sep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.61M. Brunner2.20—Sep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.38Z. Nocun1.53—Sep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.50M. Guzik1.28—Sep 18 · 02:35M. Baran1.73K. Gudzik2.00—
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