TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140949
Played Sep 17Finished
Andrzej Krezel
Home
2.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911811114116114
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
911811114116114
H2H Andrzej Krezel 3–5 Zbigniew Nocun Andrzej Krezel has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Nocun beat Krezel 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:44What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (65%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krezel 1467 vs Nocun 1495
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krezel 80% vs Nocun 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krezel 70% vs Nocun 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krezel +2 · Nocun +3
Nocun
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krezel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrezel 2.60 / Nocun 1.40
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Nocun)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13140949
Krezel2.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog30% won 50 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back11% 11 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 66
Nocun1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 320 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it94% 155 of 165
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 271
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKrezel3wins
AwayNocun5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderNocun leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrezel50%3 of 6
AwayNocunn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krezel6Nocun2n = 8Krezel took 6 of 8
S2Krezel3Nocun5n = 8Nocun took 5 of 8
S3Krezel5Nocun3n = 8Krezel took 5 of 8
S4Krezel1Nocun5n = 6Nocun took 5 of 6
S5Krezel1Nocun2n = 3Nocun took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKrezelNocunK − NBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match42.040.5+1.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrezelNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 238 vs 673 / 112334.5%59.9%82 / 238 vs 673 / 1123Avg sets wonper match1.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunKrezel 2.60/Nocun 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.4%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krezel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 16 · 18:20A. Krezel411114881Z. Nocun4461611113
LAug 26 · 21:20A. Krezel501114112122Z. Nocun56916611143
LAug 26 · 15:25A. Krezel358511111Z. Nocun4211117133
LAug 20 · 22:35A. Krezel4899111182Z. Nocun50111189113
LAug 20 · 15:00A. Krezel4111131071Z. Nocun4241512113
WAug 20 · 24:45A. Krezel531111128113Z. Nocun4485141162
WAug 13 · 22:10A. Krezel351211123Z. Nocun27107100
WAug 13 · 19:40A. Krezel331111113Z. Nocun195860
A. Krezel10
LSep 17 · 03:30A. Krezel2.554890M. Warzecha1.451111113WSep 17 · 24:45A. Krezel1.261111113W. Stechly3.259940WSep 16 · 23:30A. Krezel1.262011113K. Rybak3.2518550LSep 16 · 22:20J. Slawomir1.80101111113A. Krezel1.91129461WSep 16 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.3239100A. Krezel2.951111123WSep 16 · 20:45A. Krezel1.601111113A. Staniczek2.108570WSep 16 · 19:10A. Krezel1.26119911113K. Rybak3.2551111562LSep 16 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.4261611113A. Krezel2.461114881WSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113WSep 9 · 03:55A. Krezel1.241111123A. Barton3.4044100
Z. Nocun10
LSep 17 · 03:05W. Stechly5.051011711113Z. Nocun1.1112111772WSep 17 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.3711911153A. Staniczek2.758119131WSep 17 · 24:20Z. Nocun1.8911911113M. Warzecha1.82511971WSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.1271111123K. Rybak4.851149101WSep 16 · 21:05J. Slawomir2.00113981Z. Nocun1.7251111113LSep 16 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.85111166113Z. Nocun1.8087111172WSep 16 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.301111113A. Staniczek3.004540WSep 16 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.4261611113A. Krezel2.461114881WSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140WSep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10591112102Z. Nocun1.671111910123
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