TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140956
Played Sep 17Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.89
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115911119117––
Miroslaw Warzecha
Away
1.82
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Warzecha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
115911119117––
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 37–32 Miroslaw Warzecha Miroslaw Warzecha has won 32 of their 69 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Warzecha beat Nocun 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:46What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Warzecha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-32 in 69
Nocun
Correct
gap of 5 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1482 vs Warzecha 1487
Warzecha
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 80% vs Warzecha 40%
Nocun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 80% vs Warzecha 60%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +2 · Warzecha -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Warzecha)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Warzecha form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.89 / Warzecha 1.82
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Warzecha)+3.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13140956
Nocun1.89
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 70 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Warzecha1.82
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 355 of 487
Up 2–0, closes it97% 201 of 208
Up 1–0, closes it89% 263 of 296
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun4wins
AwayWarzecha6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWarzecha leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun80%4 of 5
AwayWarzecha100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun5Warzecha5n = 10split evenly
S2Nocun3Warzecha7n = 10Warzecha took 7 of 10
S3Nocun3Warzecha7n = 10Warzecha took 7 of 10
S4Nocun4Warzecha2n = 6Nocun took 4 of 6
S5Nocun2Warzecha2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunWarzechaN − WBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.038.0−3.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunWarzechaBasisWin rate · lifetime672 / 1122 vs 851 / 120359.9%70.7%672 / 1122 vs 851 / 1203Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WarzechaNocun 1.89/Warzecha 1.82
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Warzecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 20:20Z. Nocun4487111172M. Warzecha45111166113
WSep 10 · 24:20Z. Nocun47116811113M. Warzecha4591111682
LSep 9 · 20:20Z. Nocun27631171M. Warzecha3811115113
LSep 3 · 03:30Z. Nocun217680M. Warzecha331111113
LSep 2 · 21:30Z. Nocun247980M. Warzecha331111113
LAug 20 · 04:20Z. Nocun196580M. Warzecha331111113
WJul 30 · 24:20Z. Nocun43111110113M. Warzecha36971281
LJul 29 · 20:20Z. Nocun4511861552M. Warzecha537111113113
WJul 23 · 24:20Z. Nocun471111311113M. Warzecha4376111362
WJul 22 · 20:20Z. Nocun331111113M. Warzecha216960
Z. Nocun10
LSep 17 · 03:05W. Stechly5.051011711113Z. Nocun1.1112111772LSep 17 · 02:20A. Krezel2.60981111113Z. Nocun1.4011114642WSep 17 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.3711911153A. Staniczek2.758119131WSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.1271111123K. Rybak4.851149101WSep 16 · 21:05J. Slawomir2.00113981Z. Nocun1.7251111113LSep 16 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.85111166113Z. Nocun1.8087111172WSep 16 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.301111113A. Staniczek3.004540WSep 16 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.4261611113A. Krezel2.461114881WSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140WSep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10591112102Z. Nocun1.671111910123
M. Warzecha10
LSep 17 · 02:45M. Warzecha2.9010440A. Staniczek1.361211113WSep 17 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.2761111113K. Rybak3.43114481LSep 16 · 23:05M. Warzecha1.21971161A. Staniczek3.6511113113LSep 16 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.3239100A. Krezel2.951111123WSep 16 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.85111166113Z. Nocun1.8087111172LSep 16 · 18:45M. Warzecha1.537720J. Slawomir2.231111113WSep 16 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.081111113K. Rybak5.653880LSep 15 · 02:00J. Cyndera2.3511711113M. Warzecha1.48611791WSep 15 · 01:10J. Michalik2.65581161M. Warzecha1.3811118113WSep 15 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.2791111113A. Staniczek3.35114871
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