TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140948
Played Sep 17Finished
Miroslaw Warzecha
Home
2.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012411411––––
Adam Staniczek
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Warzecha to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
1012411411––––
H2H Miroslaw Warzecha 64–9 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 9 of their 73 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Staniczek beat Warzecha 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:44What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (68%)
Staniczek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
64-9 in 73
Warzecha
Wrong
gap of 55 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Warzecha 1477 vs Staniczek 1282
Warzecha
Wrong
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Warzecha 40% vs Staniczek 60%
Staniczek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Warzecha 50% vs Staniczek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Warzecha +1 · Staniczek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Staniczek) · live re-read · sealed at 27% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (60%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWarzecha 2.90 / Staniczek 1.36
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Staniczek)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13140948
Warzecha2.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 18 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back29% 7 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Staniczek1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite74% won 89 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it88% 68 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWarzecha8wins
AwayStaniczek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWarzecha leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWarzecha100%5 of 5
AwayStaniczek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Warzecha5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S2Warzecha8Staniczek2n = 10Warzecha took 8 of 10
S3Warzecha9Staniczek1n = 10Warzecha took 9 of 10
S4Warzecha4Staniczek2n = 6Warzecha took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWarzechaStaniczekW − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.130.7+8.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWarzechaStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime852 / 1204 vs 366 / 100870.8%36.3%852 / 1204 vs 366 / 1008Avg sets wonper match2.41.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.133.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaniczekWarzecha 2.90/Staniczek 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Staniczek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 23:05M. Warzecha33971161A. Staniczek3611113113
WSep 15 · 24:25M. Warzecha4291111113A. Staniczek30114871
WSep 14 · 20:45M. Warzecha50911118113A. Staniczek4311871162
WSep 10 · 03:20M. Warzecha331111113A. Staniczek188640
WSep 9 · 21:30M. Warzecha4891117113A. Staniczek431191581
WSep 8 · 24:25M. Warzecha341112113A. Staniczek1831050
LSep 7 · 20:45M. Warzecha4669131172A. Staniczek521111118113
WSep 3 · 02:45M. Warzecha331111113A. Staniczek206770
WSep 2 · 23:05M. Warzecha3911116113A. Staniczek25811151
WAug 24 · 21:35M. Warzecha331111113A. Staniczek228950
M. Warzecha10
WSep 17 · 03:30A. Krezel2.554890M. Warzecha1.451111113WSep 17 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.2761111113K. Rybak3.43114481LSep 17 · 24:20Z. Nocun1.8911911113M. Warzecha1.82511971LSep 16 · 23:05M. Warzecha1.21971161A. Staniczek3.6511113113LSep 16 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.3239100A. Krezel2.951111123WSep 16 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.85111166113Z. Nocun1.8087111172LSep 16 · 18:45M. Warzecha1.537720J. Slawomir2.231111113WSep 16 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.081111113K. Rybak5.653880LSep 15 · 02:00J. Cyndera2.3511711113M. Warzecha1.48611791WSep 15 · 01:10J. Michalik2.65581161M. Warzecha1.3811118113
A. Staniczek10
LSep 17 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.3711911153A. Staniczek2.758119131WSep 16 · 23:55W. Stechly2.751151041A. Staniczek1.3671112113WSep 16 · 23:05M. Warzecha1.21971161A. Staniczek3.6511113113WSep 16 · 21:55A. Staniczek1.41119414113K. Rybak2.60911111252LSep 16 · 20:45A. Krezel1.601111113A. Staniczek2.108570LSep 16 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.301111113A. Staniczek3.004540WSep 16 · 17:55J. Slawomir1.445680A. Staniczek2.401111113WSep 15 · 02:45J. Michalik1.46116531A. Staniczek2.4031111113LSep 15 · 01:35A. Staniczek3.251091171A. Zmijewski1.3012119113LSep 15 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.2791111113A. Staniczek3.35114871
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