TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140964
Played Sep 16Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.12
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111141191210––
Kazimierz Rybak
Away
4.85
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:49 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
7111141191210––
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 26–7 Kazimierz Rybak Kazimierz Rybak has won 7 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:49What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.12 (81%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-7 in 33
Nocun
Correct
gap of 19 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1480 vs Rybak 1043
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 437 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 80% vs Rybak 0%
Nocun
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 70% vs Rybak 10%
Nocun
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +1 · Rybak -5
Rybak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rybak form (0%) is below what odds imply (21%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.12 / Rybak 4.85
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Nocun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13140964
Nocun1.12
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 320 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it94% 155 of 165
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 271
Rybak4.85
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog20% won 53 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back9% 14 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun8wins
AwayRybak2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocunn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRybak25%2 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun2Rybak8n = 10Rybak took 8 of 10
S2Nocun9Rybak1n = 10Nocun took 9 of 10
S3Nocun7Rybak3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S4Nocun8Rybak1n = 9Nocun took 8 of 9
S5Nocun2Rybak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunRybakN − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match42.635.0+7.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunRybakBasisWin rate · lifetime671 / 1121 vs 118 / 50759.9%23.3%671 / 1121 vs 118 / 507Avg sets wonper match2.21.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.533.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.12/Rybak 4.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 23:55Z. Nocun50911712113K. Rybak44115111072
WAug 18 · 17:55Z. Nocun4311129113K. Rybak357101171
WAug 14 · 01:45Z. Nocun51911119113K. Rybak3911561162
WAug 13 · 16:15Z. Nocun331111113K. Rybak199460
LAug 12 · 03:55Z. Nocun47810111172K. Rybak48111286113
WAug 11 · 21:55Z. Nocun3741111113K. Rybak29114861
LAug 7 · 01:10Z. Nocun4351171192K. Rybak49119117113
WAug 6 · 16:15Z. Nocun4291111113K. Rybak35118881
WAug 2 · 22:55Z. Nocun3961111113K. Rybak24114541
WAug 2 · 16:55Z. Nocun4181111113K. Rybak28113681
Z. Nocun10
WSep 16 · 21:05J. Slawomir2.00113981Z. Nocun1.7251111113LSep 16 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.85111166113Z. Nocun1.8087111172WSep 16 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.301111113A. Staniczek3.004540WSep 16 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.4261611113A. Krezel2.461114881WSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140WSep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10591112102Z. Nocun1.671111910123WSep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38119891Z. Nocun1.5381111113LSep 14 · 22:50Z. Nocun2.00611791J. Zelezik1.7311711113WSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241LSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113
K. Rybak10
LSep 16 · 23:30A. Krezel1.262011113K. Rybak3.2518550LSep 16 · 21:55A. Staniczek1.41119414113K. Rybak2.60911111252LSep 16 · 19:55J. Slawomir1.1511711113K. Rybak4.35811771LSep 16 · 19:10A. Krezel1.26119911113K. Rybak3.2551111562LSep 16 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.081111113K. Rybak5.653880LSep 16 · 05:05K. Rybak2.27119961M. Karpiuk1.5791111113LSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113WSep 16 · 02:20K. Rybak4.10615711113J. Skorupa1.17111311682LSep 16 · 24:45K. Rybak3.951111681J. Michalik1.2013611113LSep 15 · 23:30K. Rybak4.001111681M. Baran1.1871311113
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