TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140960
Played Sep 16Finished
Andrzej Krezel
Home
1.26
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
2018115115––––
Kazimierz Rybak
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:47 and never touched — 69.4% is still 69.4%
Graded at full timeAndrzej Krezel to win
69.4%
69.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
2018115115––––
H2H Andrzej Krezel 2–1 Kazimierz Rybak Kazimierz Rybak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Krezel beat Rybak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.26 (72%)
Krezel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krezel 1461 vs Rybak 1041
Krezel
Correct
both rated, 420 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krezel 60% vs Rybak 0%
Krezel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krezel 70% vs Rybak 10%
Krezel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krezel -1 · Rybak -5
Rybak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Krezel) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rybak form (0%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrezel 1.26 / Rybak 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Krezel)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13140960
Krezel1.26
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite51% won 22 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Rybak3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog20% won 53 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back9% 14 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKrezel2wins
AwayRybak1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKrezel leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krezel2Rybak1n = 3Krezel took 2 of 3
S2Krezel2Rybak1n = 3Krezel took 2 of 3
S3Krezel1Rybak2n = 3Rybak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKrezelRybakK − RBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match44.035.0+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrezelRybakBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 236 vs 118 / 50833.9%23.2%80 / 236 vs 118 / 508Avg sets wonper match1.61.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.133.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrezelKrezel 1.26/Rybak 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Krezel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krezel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 16 · 19:10A. Krezel51119911113K. Rybak3851111562
LAug 14 · 01:00A. Krezel462111211102K. Rybak49116146123
WAug 13 · 18:55A. Krezel351111133K. Rybak1843110
A. Krezel10
WSep 17 · 24:45A. Krezel1.261111113W. Stechly3.259940LSep 16 · 22:20J. Slawomir1.80101111113A. Krezel1.91129461WSep 16 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.3239100A. Krezel2.951111123WSep 16 · 20:45A. Krezel1.601111113A. Staniczek2.108570WSep 16 · 19:10A. Krezel1.26119911113K. Rybak3.2551111562LSep 16 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.4261611113A. Krezel2.461114881WSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113WSep 9 · 03:55A. Krezel1.241111123A. Barton3.4044100LSep 9 · 02:45M. Brunner1.7771111113A. Krezel1.87118891WSep 9 · 01:30K. Delikatny1.698570A. Krezel1.961111113
K. Rybak10
LSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.1271111123K. Rybak4.851149101LSep 16 · 21:55A. Staniczek1.41119414113K. Rybak2.60911111252LSep 16 · 19:55J. Slawomir1.1511711113K. Rybak4.35811771LSep 16 · 19:10A. Krezel1.26119911113K. Rybak3.2551111562LSep 16 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.081111113K. Rybak5.653880LSep 16 · 05:05K. Rybak2.27119961M. Karpiuk1.5791111113LSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113WSep 16 · 02:20K. Rybak4.10615711113J. Skorupa1.17111311682LSep 16 · 24:45K. Rybak3.951111681J. Michalik1.2013611113LSep 15 · 23:30K. Rybak4.001111681M. Baran1.1871311113
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