TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141944
Played Sep 17Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.12
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117611119116
Kazimierz Rybak
Away
4.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
811117611119116
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 28–7 Kazimierz Rybak Kazimierz Rybak has won 7 of their 35 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nocun beat Rybak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.12 (81%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-7 in 35
Nocun
Correct
gap of 21 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1471 vs Rybak 1048
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 423 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Rybak 20%
Nocun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 70% vs Rybak 10%
Nocun
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -2 · Rybak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 86% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (60%) is below what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.12 / Rybak 4.85
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Nocun)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13141944
Nocun1.12
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 325 of 492
Up 2–0, closes it93% 156 of 167
Up 1–0, closes it85% 234 of 275
Rybak4.85
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog20% won 53 of 270
Down 0–1, comes back8% 14 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun8wins
AwayRybak2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocunn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRybak25%2 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun2Rybak8n = 10Rybak took 8 of 10
S2Nocun9Rybak1n = 10Nocun took 9 of 10
S3Nocun6Rybak4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S4Nocun8Rybak1n = 9Nocun took 8 of 9
S5Nocun3Rybak2n = 5Nocun took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunRybakN − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match43.437.6+5.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunRybakBasisWin rate · lifetime675 / 1127 vs 119 / 51359.9%23.2%675 / 1127 vs 119 / 513Avg sets wonper match2.21.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.533.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.12/Rybak 4.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.7%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 04:40Z. Nocun47811611113K. Rybak4411711962
WSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun4171111123K. Rybak341149101
WAug 18 · 23:55Z. Nocun50911712113K. Rybak44115111072
WAug 18 · 17:55Z. Nocun4311129113K. Rybak357101171
WAug 14 · 01:45Z. Nocun51911119113K. Rybak3911561162
WAug 13 · 16:15Z. Nocun331111113K. Rybak199460
LAug 12 · 03:55Z. Nocun47810111172K. Rybak48111286113
WAug 11 · 21:55Z. Nocun3741111113K. Rybak29114861
LAug 7 · 01:10Z. Nocun4351171192K. Rybak49119117113
WAug 6 · 16:15Z. Nocun4291111113K. Rybak35118881
Z. Nocun10
LSep 17 · 03:05W. Stechly5.051011711113Z. Nocun1.1112111772LSep 17 · 02:20A. Krezel2.60981111113Z. Nocun1.4011114642WSep 17 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.3711911153A. Staniczek2.758119131WSep 17 · 24:20Z. Nocun1.8911911113M. Warzecha1.82511971WSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.1271111123K. Rybak4.851149101WSep 16 · 21:05J. Slawomir2.00113981Z. Nocun1.7251111113LSep 16 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.85111166113Z. Nocun1.8087111172WSep 16 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.301111113A. Staniczek3.004540WSep 16 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.4261611113A. Krezel2.461114881WSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140
K. Rybak10
LSep 17 · 03:55A. Staniczek1.391121411113K. Rybak2.6541116892WSep 17 · 01:55W. Stechly1.845560K. Rybak1.791111113LSep 17 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.2761111113K. Rybak3.43114481LSep 16 · 23:30A. Krezel1.262011113K. Rybak3.2518550LSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.1271111123K. Rybak4.851149101LSep 16 · 21:55A. Staniczek1.41119414113K. Rybak2.60911111252LSep 16 · 19:55J. Slawomir1.1511711113K. Rybak4.35811771LSep 16 · 19:10A. Krezel1.26119911113K. Rybak3.2551111562LSep 16 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.081111113K. Rybak5.653880LSep 16 · 05:05K. Rybak2.27119961M. Karpiuk1.5791111113
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