TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141163
Played Sep 17Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111513911711––
Krystian Gudzik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:44 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Krystian Gudzik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 82 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 60.3%
82 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–2 Krystian Gudzik Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:44What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1405 vs Gudzik 1390
Baran
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 60% vs Gudzik 40%
Baran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 70% vs Gudzik 50%
Baran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -1 · Gudzik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.73 / Gudzik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Baran)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13141163
Baran1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 45 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36
Gudzik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 18 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayGudzik2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran2Gudzik2n = 4split evenly
S2Baran3Gudzik1n = 4Baran took 3 of 4
S3Baran2Gudzik2n = 4split evenly
S4Baran1Gudzik2n = 3Gudzik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricBaranGudzikB − GBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.037.0+1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranGudzikBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 143 vs 62 / 12254.6%50.8%78 / 143 vs 62 / 122Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranBaran 1.73/Gudzik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gudzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran331111113K. Gudzik206860
LSep 10 · 18:55M. Baran4411511982K. Gudzik46611711113
LAug 10 · 24:35M. Baran28611381K. Gudzik4111811113
WAug 9 · 18:30M. Baran47611811113K. Gudzik4111411782
M. Baran10
LSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771LSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153WSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.531171161M. Baran2.3881113113WSep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.2071191292M. Baran1.611161110113LSep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.208711101A. Fomin1.6111119123WSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113WSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113WSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113WSep 16 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.67118101172M. Baran2.10511128113WSep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.201161011113A. Fomin1.6191112972
K. Gudzik10
WSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.91131111113G. Mucha1.801151381LSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.731111614113K. Gudzik2.0035111682WSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113LSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760WSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Gudzik2.6311013642J. Zelezik1.445111111113LSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.801011791G. Mucha1.9112611113LSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241WSep 14 · 20:30K. Gudzik2.75411911113J. Zelezik1.4011711732WSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970
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