TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141162
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116711117117––
Mateusz Baran
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Michal Guzik at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 4–0 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Guzik
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1527 vs Baran 1393
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 60% vs Baran 40%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 80% vs Baran 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +3 · Baran -2
Guzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.25 / Baran 3.75
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13141162
Guzik1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 127 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it97% 74 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it89% 93 of 105
Baran3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 25 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGuzik4wins
AwayBaran0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderGuzik leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik100%4 of 4
AwayBarann = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik4Baran0n = 4Guzik took 4 of 4
S2Guzik4Baran0n = 4Guzik took 4 of 4
S3Guzik2Baran2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricGuzikBaranG − BBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match41.534.8+6.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 193 vs 78 / 14472%54.2%139 / 193 vs 78 / 144Avg sets wonper match2.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.25/Baran 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 6 · 22:50M. Guzik4012115123M. Baran3910811101
WAug 6 · 16:55M. Guzik331111113M. Baran187560
WAug 2 · 21:00M. Guzik351113113M. Baran2771190
WAug 2 · 16:35M. Guzik581511119123M. Baran551381311102
M. Guzik10
WSep 17 · 17:45M. Guzik1.221111113Z. Nocun4.005720WSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240WSep 17 · 15:00M. Guzik1.2011117113G. Mucha4.33671181LSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962LSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831WSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460WSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113WSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451
M. Baran10
WSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran1.73515971K. Gudzik2.00111311113LSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153WSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.531171161M. Baran2.3881113113WSep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.2071191292M. Baran1.611161110113LSep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.208711101A. Fomin1.6111119123WSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113WSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113WSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113WSep 16 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.67118101172M. Baran2.10511128113
Upcoming Matches
M. Guzik
M. Baran
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.