TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141161
Played Sep 17Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811911117611
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Brunner above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Marian Brunner 2–2 Mateusz Baran Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Baran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1279 vs Baran 1385
Baran
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 20% vs Baran 40%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 30% vs Baran 60%
Baran
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner -4 · Baran -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 2.25 / Baran 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Baran)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13141161
Brunner2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 47 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Baran1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 45 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBrunner2wins
AwayBaran2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrunner50%2 of 4
AwayBarann = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brunner4Baran0n = 4Brunner took 4 of 4
S2Brunner1Baran3n = 4Baran took 3 of 4
S3Brunner2Baran2n = 4split evenly
S4Brunner1Baran2n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricBrunnerBaranBrunner − BaranBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match42.841.2+1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 575 vs 78 / 14549.4%53.8%284 / 575 vs 78 / 145Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranBrunner 2.25/Baran 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner28115661M. Baran4181111113
WSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner341112113M. Baran2791080
WAug 26 · 24:20M. Brunner571115119113M. Baran4871761172
LAug 25 · 20:20M. Brunner521310121162M. Baran491112141113
M. Brunner10
LSep 17 · 18:30M. Brunner2.637740Z. Nocun1.441111113LSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113LSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240LSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113WSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113WSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113WSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561LSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113LSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100LSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113
M. Baran10
WSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491LSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771LSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran1.73515971K. Gudzik2.00111311113LSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153WSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.531171161M. Baran2.3881113113WSep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.2071191292M. Baran1.611161110113LSep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.208711101A. Fomin1.6111119123WSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113WSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113WSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113
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