TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134527
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119711119711
Jakub Mach
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Mach to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Jakub Mach below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 98 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jakub Mach at 64.4%
98 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 6–6 Jakub Mach Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1337 vs Mach 1553
Mach
Correct
both rated, 215 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 40% vs Mach 80%
Mach
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 20% vs Mach 80%
Mach
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec +1 · Mach +4
Mach
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Mach) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mach form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.63 / Mach 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Mach)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13134527
Nemec2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 78 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 82
Mach1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 43 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it77% 34 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec5wins
AwayMach5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMach62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec2Mach8n = 10Mach took 8 of 10
S2Nemec7Mach3n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S3Nemec5Mach5n = 10split evenly
S4Nemec6Mach1n = 7Nemec took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecMachN − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.438.4+1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecMachBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 772 vs 201 / 41547.4%48.4%366 / 772 vs 201 / 415Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachNemec 2.63/Mach 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Mach · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec2154120J. Mach361111143
WAug 25 · 18:20M. Nemec4591213113J. Mach4111101191
LAug 23 · 17:59M. Nemec2111190J. Mach351113113
WAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec46131111113J. Mach35156681
WAug 18 · 18:20M. Nemec4181111113J. Mach24115261
LJul 27 · 18:55M. Nemec399118111J. Mach4211711133
WJul 25 · 11:55M. Nemec4411913113J. Mach388111181
LJul 22 · 20:50M. Nemec54711712172J. Mach581171110193
WJul 20 · 20:50M. Nemec331111113J. Mach209830
LJun 24 · 21:25M. Nemec50711814102J. Mach551191112123
M. Nemec10
WSep 15 · 21:20M. Nemec2.0011101311113M. Dlask1.7371215652WSep 15 · 19:20M. Nemec2.001111113M. Dlask1.737390LSep 15 · 18:20M. Nemec3.0011611952R. Zeman1.36211411113LSep 13 · 13:25M. Nemec2.109350Z. Dusek1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec2.753770R. Zeman1.401111113WSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec2.5091111113Z. Dusek1.50115891LSep 13 · 10:20M. Nemec2.2511126101P. Cibik1.5741411123LSep 11 · 21:23J. Rolik1.441111113M. Nemec2.638260LSep 11 · 20:20J. Rolik1.671111113M. Nemec2.107980LSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892
J. Mach10
LSep 15 · 19:50R. Zeman3.00811128113J. Mach1.36119101192WSep 15 · 18:50J. Mach1.571111133M. Dlask2.2536110WAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143WAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891LAug 25 · 18:20J. Mach1.5011101191M. Nemec2.5091213113WAug 23 · 17:59J. Mach1.731113113M. Nemec2.0011190WAug 23 · 16:50J. Mach2.251112911113Z. Dusek1.5731411862WAug 23 · 15:18R. Zeman2.5010270J. Mach1.501211113LAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec2.50131111113J. Mach1.47156681
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