TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122403
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11412146111012––
Pavel Cibik
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:02 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 80 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 67.5%
80 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 10–21 Pavel Cibik Michal Nemec has won 10 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:02What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-21 in 31
Cibik
Correct
gap of 11 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1292 vs Cibik 1447
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 20% vs Cibik 80%
Cibik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 40% vs Cibik 80%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec -4 · Cibik +1
Nemec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Cibik) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.25 / Cibik 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Cibik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13122403
Nemec2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 78 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back15% 21 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 80
Cibik1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 65 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 48 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec2wins
AwayCibik8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemecn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayCibik77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec1Cibik9n = 10Cibik took 9 of 10
S2Nemec4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S3Nemec5Cibik5n = 10split evenly
S4Nemec4Cibik4n = 8split evenly
S5Nemec2Cibik4n = 6Cibik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecCibikN − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match39.745.5−5.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 778 vs 310 / 67947.6%45.7%370 / 778 vs 310 / 679Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikNemec 2.25/Cibik 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 19:50M. Nemec4551112892P. Cibik521191011113
LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2351350P. Cibik371115113
LSep 2 · 15:50M. Nemec326511101P. Cibik4311119123
LAug 13 · 20:25M. Nemec4912881382P. Cibik5410111111113
LJul 27 · 19:55M. Nemec198380P. Cibik331111113
LJul 25 · 13:55M. Nemec40881681P. Cibik47111114113
WJul 25 · 10:55M. Nemec50611712143P. Cibik491151110122
WJul 15 · 10:20M. Nemec48811711113P. Cibik4111611582
LJul 14 · 13:55M. Nemec4359111262P. Cibik511111810113
LJul 14 · 11:50M. Nemec481011111062P. Cibik48129412113
M. Nemec10
LSep 11 · 21:23J. Rolik1.441111113M. Nemec2.638260LSep 11 · 20:20J. Rolik1.671111113M. Nemec2.107980LSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892LSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123WSep 10 · 21:25M. Nemec1.8516911113J. Rolik1.851411881LSep 10 · 20:50R. Zeman1.441114123M. Nemec2.63612100WSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151LSep 10 · 18:20M. Dlask1.67121169113M. Nemec2.10109111152WSep 10 · 13:49M. Nemec1.67771113123L. Pour2.101111511102WSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec1.531112113M. Kolbusovsky2.3881060
P. Cibik10
WSep 12 · 18:29O. Hula1.67119891P. Cibik2.1061111113LSep 12 · 17:25O. Hula2.10111213113P. Cibik1.6713101121WSep 12 · 16:25P. Cibik1.5011111112123M. Kolbusovsky2.50136114102WSep 12 · 14:55R. Zeman2.3859111152P. Cibik1.53111188113WSep 11 · 21:55P. Cibik1.2511811113M. Kolbusovsky3.35611981WSep 11 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky2.6311116852P. Cibik1.44591111113WSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892WSep 11 · 18:20J. Rolik2.254980P. Cibik1.571111113WSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113LSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691
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