TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13105416
Played Sep 9Finished
Zdenek Dusek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181012119611611
Pavel Cibik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:25 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeZdenek Dusek to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Dusek above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 95 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Zdenek Dusek at 55.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Dusek 32–27 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 27 of their 59 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:25What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-27 in 59
Dusek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dusek 1420 vs Cibik 1463
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dusek 80% vs Cibik 60%
Dusek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dusek 60% vs Cibik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dusek +3 · Cibik +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cibik) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dusek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDusek 1.83 / Cibik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cibik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13105416
Dusek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Cibik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDusek5wins
AwayCibik5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDusek83.3%5 of 6
AwayCibik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dusek6Cibik4n = 10Dusek took 6 of 10
S2Dusek7Cibik3n = 10Dusek took 7 of 10
S3Dusek5Cibik5n = 10split evenly
S4Dusek1Cibik3n = 4Cibik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDusekCibikD − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.129.2+3.9per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDusekCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 469 vs 306 / 67741.4%45.2%194 / 469 vs 306 / 677Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikDusek 1.83/Cibik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 21:53Z. Dusek—811511P. Cibik—11911113
LAug 5 · 19:50Z. Dusek—8890P. Cibik—1111113
WJun 14 · 20:25Z. Dusek—1111113P. Cibik—7530
WMay 17 · 20:55Z. Dusek—1111113P. Cibik—3590
WApr 12 · 08:20Z. Dusek—1111113P. Cibik—5680
LApr 8 · 21:25Z. Dusek—9111071P. Cibik—11912113
LApr 8 · 20:20Z. Dusek—8550P. Cibik—1111113
LMar 6 · 21:20Z. Dusek—1191211112P. Cibik—5111013133
WFeb 28 · 22:36Z. Dusek—1111993P. Cibik—951121
WFeb 28 · 21:20Z. Dusek—1111113P. Cibik—3170
Z. Dusek10
WSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:20S. Matousch1.8082131142Z. Dusek1.911111119113WSep 9 · 14:50M. Cesak2.00129781Z. Dusek1.73101111113WAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113LAug 31 · 20:50L. Vich1.7311714113Z. Dusek2.009111241WAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161LAug 31 · 18:20S. Matousch2.251111123Z. Dusek1.5736100WAug 27 · 21:28Z. Dusek2.2511135113T. Barsa1.578111171LAug 27 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.61821113113Z. Dusek2.20111161152WAug 27 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.38118411113T. Barsa1.5361111562
P. Cibik10
LSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662WSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113WSep 7 · 21:20R. Zeman2.025740P. Cibik1.701111113LSep 7 · 20:20P. Cibik1.611111103122R. Zeman2.20871211143LSep 7 · 19:20P. Cibik2.10811110Z. Vyskocil1.671113133WSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83113711113L. Vich1.8391111952LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133
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