TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085104
Played Sep 6Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111315511––––
Pavel Cibik
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:38 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 60 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 60.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 10–18 Pavel Cibik Michal Nemec has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-18 in 28
Cibik
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1318 vs Cibik 1499
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 40% vs Cibik 60%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 40% vs Cibik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec +2 · Cibik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.20 / Cibik 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Cibik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13085104
Nemec2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 81 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back17% 24 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 76
Cibik1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 62 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it73% 44 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec3wins
AwayCibik7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemecn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayCibik66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec1Cibik9n = 10Cibik took 9 of 10
S2Nemec5Cibik5n = 10split evenly
S3Nemec5Cibik5n = 10split evenly
S4Nemec5Cibik3n = 8Nemec took 5 of 8
S5Nemec2Cibik4n = 6Cibik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecCibikN − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match41.244.4−3.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 778 vs 301 / 66948.3%45%376 / 778 vs 301 / 669Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikNemec 2.20/Cibik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 20:25M. Nemec—12881382P. Cibik—10111111113
LJul 27 · 19:55M. Nemec—8380P. Cibik—1111113
LJul 25 · 13:55M. Nemec—881681P. Cibik—111114113
WJul 25 · 10:55M. Nemec—611712143P. Cibik—1151110122
WJul 15 · 10:20M. Nemec—811711113P. Cibik—11611582
LJul 14 · 13:55M. Nemec—59111262P. Cibik—1111810113
LJul 14 · 11:50M. Nemec—1011111062P. Cibik—129412113
LJul 13 · 14:00M. Nemec—31280P. Cibik—1114113
WJul 13 · 11:55M. Nemec—71111123P. Cibik—1169101
LJul 12 · 14:00M. Nemec—1311116102P. Cibik—159211123
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123WSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191
P. Cibik10
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881LSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113LSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:50P. Cibik1.6711119123M. Nemec2.106511101
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