TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063904
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Cesak
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71111541115131012
Pavel Cibik
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:24 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMichal Cesak above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 99 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Michal Cesak at 54.9%
99 points played in total.
H2H Michal Cesak 6–4 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:24What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cesak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Cesak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cesak 1511 vs Cibik 1563
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cesak 20% vs Cibik 60%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cesak 50% vs Cibik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cesak +1 · Cibik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cesak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCesak 1.44 / Cibik 2.63
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Cibik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13063904
Cesak1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 48 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it72% 36 of 50
Cibik2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 69 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCesak6wins
AwayCibik4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCesak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCesak85.7%6 of 7
AwayCibik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cesak7Cibik3n = 10Cesak took 7 of 10
S2Cesak6Cibik4n = 10Cesak took 6 of 10
S3Cesak4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S4Cesak2Cibik1n = 3Cesak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCesakCibikCesak − CibikBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.233.4+0.8per matchSweeps43+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCesakCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 180 vs 297 / 66157.8%44.9%104 / 180 vs 297 / 661Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCesak 1.44/Cibik 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 14:50M. Cesak—81570P. Cibik—1117113
WJul 21 · 16:20M. Cesak—1111113P. Cibik—9990
WJul 9 · 15:50M. Cesak—1211113P. Cibik—10940
LJul 1 · 15:50M. Cesak—3960P. Cibik—1111113
LMay 10 · 14:20M. Cesak—9670P. Cibik—1111113
WMay 8 · 16:50M. Cesak—1112811113P. Cibik—91411672
LApr 2 · 14:50M. Cesak—12115672P. Cibik—1081111113
WFeb 22 · 14:55M. Cesak—11119113P. Cibik—691191
WFeb 22 · 12:20M. Cesak—1111113P. Cibik—9760
WFeb 6 · 17:20M. Cesak—1411113P. Cibik—12390
M. Cesak10
WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113LSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec2.7513117113M. Cesak1.401191131LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741WAug 26 · 14:50M. Cesak1.73711911113M. Juhasz2.0011611582WAug 16 · 13:49R. Zeman2.0011117572M. Cesak1.73261111113WAug 16 · 12:50M. Nemec2.6375110M. Cesak1.441111133LAug 16 · 11:50M. Cesak1.5310760R. Zeman2.381211113
P. Cibik10
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881LSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113LSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 15:50P. Cibik1.6711119123M. Nemec2.106511101
Upcoming Matches
M. Cesak
Nothing scheduled
P. Cibik1 of 1 neutral
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