TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12441028
Played Aug 16Finished
Michal Cesak
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711611––––
Radek Zeman
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Cesak above · Radek Zeman below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Michal Cesak at 61.8%
57 points played in total.
H2H Michal Cesak 21–14 Radek Zeman Radek Zeman has won 14 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cesak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-14 in 35
Cesak
Wrong
gap of 7 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cesak 1616 vs Zeman 1496
Cesak
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cesak 80% vs Zeman 60%
Cesak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cesak 60% vs Zeman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cesak +4 · Zeman -1
Cesak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Cesak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCesak 1.53 / Zeman 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Cesak)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12441028
Cesak1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 45 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Zeman2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCesak7wins
AwayZeman3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCesak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCesak75%6 of 8
AwayZemann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cesak8Zeman2n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10
S2Cesak5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S3Cesak5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S4Cesak7Zeman1n = 8Cesak took 7 of 8
S5Cesak2Zeman3n = 5Zeman took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCesakZemanC − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.438.2+5.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCesakZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 175 vs 329 / 62357.7%52.8%101 / 175 vs 329 / 623Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CesakCesak 1.53/Zeman 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.8%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 16 · 17:50M. Cesak—11413113R. Zeman—5111181
WJun 16 · 15:50M. Cesak—138115113R. Zeman—111171122
LJun 14 · 11:20M. Cesak—11861192R. Zeman—711119113
WJun 11 · 17:55M. Cesak—11117113R. Zeman—471151
LJun 11 · 14:50M. Cesak—61191152R. Zeman—114118113
WJun 2 · 18:00M. Cesak—1115113R. Zeman—81330
WJun 2 · 14:50M. Cesak—711812143R. Zeman—1151110122
WMay 31 · 12:50M. Cesak—11811123R. Zeman—5118101
WMay 21 · 14:50M. Cesak—1911113R. Zeman—17760
LMay 10 · 17:24M. Cesak—111181172R. Zeman—813114113
M. Cesak10
WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113LSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec2.7513117113M. Cesak1.401191131LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741WAug 26 · 14:50M. Cesak1.73711911113M. Juhasz2.0011611582WAug 16 · 13:49R. Zeman2.0011117572M. Cesak1.73261111113WAug 16 · 12:50M. Nemec2.6375110M. Cesak1.441111133
R. Zeman10
WSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:20R. Zeman2.1071260Z. Vyskocil1.671114113LSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113LSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260WSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770WSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113LSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462LAug 30 · 21:24P. Cibik1.731211113R. Zeman2.0010060LAug 16 · 13:49R. Zeman2.0011117572M. Cesak1.73261111113
Upcoming Matches
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R. Zeman
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