TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13066423
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811711––––
Michal Cesak
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Michal Cesak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Michal Cesak at 55.2%
55 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 17–26 Michal Cesak Michal Nemec has won 17 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:28What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Cesak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-26 in 43
Cesak
Correct
gap of 9 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1332 vs Cesak 1502
Cesak
Correct
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 0% vs Cesak 20%
Cesak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 30% vs Cesak 50%
Cesak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec -5 · Cesak -1
Nemec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Cesak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesak form (20%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 3.50 / Cesak 1.28
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Cesak)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13066423
Nemec3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 81 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back18% 25 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 72
Cesak1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 48 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it72% 36 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec4wins
AwayCesak6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCesak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCesak75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec2Cesak8n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10
S2Nemec5Cesak5n = 10split evenly
S3Nemec2Cesak8n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10
S4Nemec3Cesak3n = 6split evenly
S5Nemec3Cesak1n = 4Nemec took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecCesakN − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.938.6−3.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecCesakBasisWin rate · lifetime375 / 773 vs 104 / 18148.5%57.5%375 / 773 vs 104 / 181Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CesakNemec 3.50/Cesak 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.3%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cesak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec—13117113M. Cesak—1191131
LAug 16 · 12:50M. Nemec—75110M. Cesak—1111133
WJun 16 · 14:20M. Nemec—119116113M. Cesak—61181172
LJun 11 · 16:50M. Nemec—911831M. Cesak—11511113
LMay 31 · 10:20M. Nemec—71161162M. Cesak—119117113
WMay 22 · 11:20M. Nemec—511117113M. Cesak—11631192
WMay 21 · 15:20M. Nemec—8111011113M. Cesak—11712882
LMay 15 · 14:00M. Nemec—8560M. Cesak—1111113
LMay 15 · 11:20M. Nemec—91050M. Cesak—1112113
LMay 8 · 15:20M. Nemec—61090M. Cesak—1112113
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123
M. Cesak10
LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113LSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec2.7513117113M. Cesak1.401191131LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741WAug 26 · 14:50M. Cesak1.73711911113M. Juhasz2.0011611582WAug 16 · 13:49R. Zeman2.0011117572M. Cesak1.73261111113WAug 16 · 12:50M. Nemec2.6375110M. Cesak1.441111133LAug 16 · 11:50M. Cesak1.5310760R. Zeman2.381211113
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