TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076540
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111412114611118
Michal Nemec
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:00 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 10-8
Point 96 set 5, 10-8 — our read held Michal Nemec at 61.2%
96 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 20–35 Michal Nemec Michal Kolbusovsky has won 20 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:00What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nemec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-35 in 55
Nemec
Wrong
gap of 15 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1349 vs Nemec 1331
Kolbusovsky
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 60% vs Nemec 40%
Kolbusovsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 40% vs Nemec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky +2 · Nemec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Nemec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 2.38 / Nemec 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Nemec)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13076540
Kolbusovsky2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 56 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 51
Nemec1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 88 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it79% 59 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky2wins
AwayNemec8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky40%2 of 5
AwayNemec100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolbusovsky4Nemec6n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S3Kolbusovsky2Nemec8n = 10Nemec took 8 of 10
S4Kolbusovsky4Nemec5n = 9Nemec took 5 of 9
S5Kolbusovsky2Nemec4n = 6Nemec took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyNemecK − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.647.9−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 455 vs 377 / 77847.9%48.5%218 / 455 vs 377 / 778Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecKolbusovsky 2.38/Nemec 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky—111158113M. Nemec—68111132
LJul 24 · 19:20M. Kolbusovsky—11551152M. Nemec—911118113
WJul 15 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky—1171211113M. Nemec—91114732
LJul 14 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky—54251192M. Nemec—1111236113
LJul 11 · 19:55M. Kolbusovsky—12147872M. Nemec—10121111113
LJul 9 · 21:20M. Kolbusovsky—1114471M. Nemec—71611113
LJul 9 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky—91180M. Nemec—1113113
LJul 8 · 13:20M. Kolbusovsky—11127121M. Nemec—131011143
LJul 8 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky—851171M. Nemec—11118113
LJun 30 · 14:00M. Kolbusovsky—9121111192M. Nemec—1110135213
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132LSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00741111123P. Cibik1.36111179102LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky2.251013781S. Matousch1.57121111113LAug 11 · 08:55M. Kolbusovsky3.251081181J. Vintr1.3312119113LAug 11 · 07:55M. Kolbusovsky2.5011271192O. Hula1.50511116113
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123LSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132
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