TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12399857
Played Aug 11Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012811119811––
Josef Vintr
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:15 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeJosef Vintr to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Josef Vintr below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 80 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Josef Vintr at 71.7%
80 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 1–3 Josef Vintr Michal Kolbusovsky has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Vintr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Vintr
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1202 vs Vintr 1567
Vintr
Correct
both rated, 365 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 20% vs Vintr 60%
Vintr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 10% vs Vintr 60%
Vintr
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky -1 · Vintr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Vintr) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vintr form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 3.25 / Vintr 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Vintr)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #12399857
Kolbusovsky3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 58 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Vintr1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite83% won 10 of 12
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky1wins
AwayVintr3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderVintr leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovskyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVintr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky1Vintr3n = 4Vintr took 3 of 4
S2Kolbusovsky1Vintr3n = 4Vintr took 3 of 4
S3Kolbusovsky2Vintr2n = 4split evenly
S4Kolbusovsky1Vintr2n = 3Vintr took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyVintrK − VBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match37.841.2−3.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyVintrBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 457 vs 29 / 5047.9%58%219 / 457 vs 29 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VintrKolbusovsky 3.25/Vintr 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Vintr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vintr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LMay 31 · 16:50M. Kolbusovsky—121270J. Vintr—1414113
WDec 19 · 15:05M. Kolbusovsky—137311113J. Vintr—111111432
LDec 19 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky—951181J. Vintr—11117113
LDec 5 · 07:50M. Kolbusovsky—511111052J. Vintr—115712113
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132LSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00741111123P. Cibik1.36111179102LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky2.251013781S. Matousch1.57121111113LAug 11 · 07:55M. Kolbusovsky2.5011271192O. Hula1.50511116113
J. Vintr10
LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143LSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100WSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113WSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik1.80109120J. Vintr1.901211143WSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik1.736101311133J. Vintr2.001112115112WSep 1 · 10:50J. Rolik2.2559111162J. Vintr1.57111138113WAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch1.9581491182J. Vintr1.751112119113WAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660
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