TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13022339
Played Aug 26Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111412911119811
Josef Vintr
Away
1.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:19 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeSimon Matousch to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Josef Vintr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 104 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Simon Matousch at 66.1%
104 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 5–4 Josef Vintr Josef Vintr has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:19What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Vintr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1432 vs Vintr 1479
Vintr
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 80% vs Vintr 20%
Matousch
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 60% vs Vintr 20%
Matousch
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch +3 · Vintr +1
Matousch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vintr) · live re-read · sealed at 34% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vintr form (20%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 1.95 / Vintr 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vintr)+1.3pp
TT Cup · #13022339
Matousch1.95
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 14 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Vintr1.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite78% won 14 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMatousch5wins
AwayVintr4wins
6 of 9 to a deciderMatousch leads 5–4, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch100%3 of 3
AwayVintr66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch3Vintr6n = 9Vintr took 6 of 9
S2Matousch6Vintr3n = 9Matousch took 6 of 9
S3Matousch3Vintr6n = 9Vintr took 6 of 9
S4Matousch6Vintr1n = 7Matousch took 6 of 7
S5Matousch3Vintr3n = 6split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMatouschVintrM − VBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match42.442.3+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschVintrBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 335 vs 36 / 6848.1%52.9%161 / 335 vs 36 / 68Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.240.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VintrMatousch 1.95/Vintr 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vintr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vintr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch—81491182J. Vintr—1112119113
WAug 26 · 14:20S. Matousch—1111113J. Vintr—6670
WAug 25 · 12:20S. Matousch—111378113J. Vintr—511111192
WAug 18 · 17:29S. Matousch—812711123J. Vintr—1110116102
LAug 18 · 16:20S. Matousch—98111162J. Vintr—111193113
LAug 11 · 08:25S. Matousch—77110J. Vintr—1111133
LJun 18 · 16:50S. Matousch—101161172J. Vintr—128118113
WJan 22 · 12:20S. Matousch—611611113J. Vintr—11911782
WJan 20 · 11:20S. Matousch—11411133J. Vintr—6119111
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113
J. Vintr10
LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143LSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100WSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113WSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik1.80109120J. Vintr1.901211143WSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik1.736101311133J. Vintr2.001112115112WSep 1 · 10:50J. Rolik2.2559111162J. Vintr1.57111138113WAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:20J. Vintr2.10411971M. Juhasz1.6711711113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.