TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13056019
Played Sep 1Finished
Josef Vintr
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111131181412––
Simon Matousch
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Vintr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Vintr above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 79 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Josef Vintr at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Josef Vintr 4–5 Simon Matousch Josef Vintr has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vintr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vintr 1479 vs Matousch 1408
Vintr
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vintr 60% vs Matousch 20%
Vintr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vintr 30% vs Matousch 50%
Matousch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vintr -1 · Matousch -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vintr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVintr 1.80 / Matousch 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vintr)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13056019
Vintr1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 15 of 20
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Matousch1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 19 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeVintr4wins
AwayMatousch5wins
6 of 9 to a deciderMatousch leads 5–4, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVintr66.7%4 of 6
AwayMatousch100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vintr6Matousch3n = 9Vintr took 6 of 9
S2Vintr3Matousch6n = 9Matousch took 6 of 9
S3Vintr6Matousch3n = 9Vintr took 6 of 9
S4Vintr1Matousch6n = 7Matousch took 6 of 7
S5Vintr3Matousch3n = 6split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricVintrMatouschV − MBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match42.342.4−0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVintrMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime37 / 70 vs 163 / 34152.9%47.8%37 / 70 vs 163 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VintrVintr 1.80/Matousch 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vintr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vintr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 26 · 17:50J. Vintr—1112119113S. Matousch—81491182
LAug 26 · 14:20J. Vintr—6670S. Matousch—1111113
LAug 25 · 12:20J. Vintr—511111192S. Matousch—111378113
LAug 18 · 17:29J. Vintr—1110116102S. Matousch—812711123
WAug 18 · 16:20J. Vintr—111193113S. Matousch—98111162
WAug 11 · 08:25J. Vintr—1111133S. Matousch—77110
WJun 18 · 16:50J. Vintr—128118113S. Matousch—101161172
LJan 22 · 12:20J. Vintr—11911782S. Matousch—611611113
LJan 20 · 11:20J. Vintr—6119111S. Matousch—11411133
J. Vintr10
LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143LSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100WSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113WSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik1.80109120J. Vintr1.901211143LSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik1.736101311133J. Vintr2.001112115112WSep 1 · 10:50J. Rolik2.2559111162J. Vintr1.57111138113WAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch1.9581491182J. Vintr1.751112119113WAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:20J. Vintr2.10411971M. Juhasz1.6711711113
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch1.9581491182J. Vintr1.751112119113
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