TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051865
Played Aug 31Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210911911113811
Marek Dlask
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Matousch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Marek Dlask below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Simon Matousch at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 12–8 Marek Dlask Marek Dlask has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:14What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Matousch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-8 in 20
Matousch
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1434 vs Dlask 1470
Dlask
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 60% vs Dlask 20%
Matousch
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 60% vs Dlask 30%
Matousch
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -1 · Dlask -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Matousch) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dlask form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 1.67 / Dlask 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Matousch)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13051865
Matousch1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 32 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Dlask2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 28 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back34% 12 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back22% 5 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch7wins
AwayDlask3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMatousch leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch87.5%7 of 8
AwayDlaskn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch8Dlask2n = 10Matousch took 8 of 10
S2Matousch7Dlask3n = 10Matousch took 7 of 10
S3Matousch2Dlask8n = 10Dlask took 8 of 10
S4Matousch5Dlask3n = 8Matousch took 5 of 8
S5Matousch2Dlask1n = 3Matousch took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschDlaskM − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.937.2+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschDlaskBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 337 vs 150 / 30948.1%48.5%162 / 337 vs 150 / 309Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatouschMatousch 1.67/Dlask 2.10
Miss
What we said
56.2%
Matousch · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dlask won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LNov 5 · 23:15S. Matousch—119741M. Dlask—41111113
WNov 5 · 22:10S. Matousch—11911123M. Dlask—6115101
WOct 29 · 21:40S. Matousch—1111113M. Dlask—9570
LOct 15 · 20:40S. Matousch—6360M. Dlask—1111103
WJun 19 · 22:15S. Matousch—11119113M. Dlask—991191
WJun 19 · 19:40S. Matousch—151186113M. Dlask—138111182
WApr 28 · 21:50S. Matousch—11119113M. Dlask—891151
LApr 28 · 21:10S. Matousch—81181192M. Dlask—118119113
WMar 25 · 19:40S. Matousch—111184113M. Dlask—89111182
WMar 24 · 21:50S. Matousch—11117113M. Dlask—951161
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 19:20S. Matousch2.2075111192L. Vich1.61111186113
M. Dlask10
LAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113LAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161LAug 31 · 18:50M. Dlask3.001112541L. Vich1.3651411113WAug 26 · 21:20M. Dlask1.67119811113M. Nemec2.1091111972LAug 26 · 20:20M. Dlask1.5789100J. Rolik2.251111123LAug 26 · 19:20M. Dlask2.20261181R. Zeman1.6111118113WAug 26 · 18:20M. Dlask1.731111113M. Nemec2.009850LAug 25 · 21:25M. Dlask2.2061171182R. Zeman1.61118116113LAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342LAug 25 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011139113M. Dlask1.736111171
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