TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051614
Played Aug 31Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711511118116911
Lukas Vich
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:16 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Vich to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Lukas Vich below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Vich at 60.5%
90 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:16What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vich
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1434 vs Vich 1525
Vich
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 80% vs Vich 60%
Matousch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 70% vs Vich 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch +1 · Vich +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vich)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 2.20 / Vich 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Vich)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13051614
Matousch2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 17 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Vich1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 34 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it61% 20 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschVichBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 337 vs 239 / 52048.1%46%162 / 337 vs 239 / 520Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VichMatousch 2.20/Vich 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Vich · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vich won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113
L. Vich10
LSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540LSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113WSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113WSep 6 · 19:25Z. Vyskocil1.731110111162L. Vich2.00712913113WSep 2 · 22:03L. Vich1.671711123M. Juhasz2.10158100WSep 2 · 20:55L. Vich1.8311113113M. Juhasz1.83891181LSep 2 · 19:55L. Vich1.831151051Z. Vyskocil1.8391112113LSep 2 · 18:55L. Vich2.205380T. Barsa1.611111113LAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113WAug 31 · 20:50L. Vich1.7311714113Z. Dusek2.009111241
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