TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068200
Played Sep 3Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11412101210––––
Josef Vintr
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:48 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJosef Vintr to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Josef Vintr below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Josef Vintr at 59.7%
59 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 6–5 Josef Vintr Josef Vintr has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vintr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1372 vs Vintr 1501
Vintr
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 0% vs Vintr 80%
Vintr
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 20% vs Vintr 60%
Vintr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -5 · Vintr +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vintr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vintr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 2.25 / Vintr 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Vintr)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13068200
Matousch2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 18 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Vintr1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 17 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch5wins
AwayVintr5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch75%3 of 4
AwayVintr66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch4Vintr6n = 10Vintr took 6 of 10
S2Matousch7Vintr3n = 10Matousch took 7 of 10
S3Matousch3Vintr7n = 10Vintr took 7 of 10
S4Matousch5Vintr2n = 7Matousch took 5 of 7
S5Matousch3Vintr3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschVintrM − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.3−0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschVintrBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 346 vs 40 / 7447.4%54.1%164 / 346 vs 40 / 74Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.240.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VintrMatousch 2.25/Vintr 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Vintr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Matousch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch—1112123J. Vintr—410100
LSep 1 · 12:50S. Matousch—1138121J. Vintr—91111143
LAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch—81491182J. Vintr—1112119113
WAug 26 · 14:20S. Matousch—1111113J. Vintr—6670
WAug 25 · 12:20S. Matousch—111378113J. Vintr—511111192
WAug 18 · 17:29S. Matousch—812711123J. Vintr—1110116102
LAug 18 · 16:20S. Matousch—98111162J. Vintr—111193113
LAug 11 · 08:25S. Matousch—77110J. Vintr—1111133
LJun 18 · 16:50S. Matousch—101161172J. Vintr—128118113
WJan 22 · 12:20S. Matousch—611611113J. Vintr—11911782
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 31 · 19:20S. Matousch2.2075111192L. Vich1.61111186113
J. Vintr10
LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113WSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik1.80109120J. Vintr1.901211143WSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik1.736101311133J. Vintr2.001112115112WSep 1 · 10:50J. Rolik2.2559111162J. Vintr1.57111138113WAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch1.9581491182J. Vintr1.751112119113WAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:20J. Vintr2.10411971M. Juhasz1.6711711113
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