TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068273
Played Sep 3Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911311711––
Pavel Cibik
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:29 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 56.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 27–24 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 24 of their 51 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:29What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Matousch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-24 in 51
Matousch
Wrong
gap of 3 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1381 vs Cibik 1471
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 20% vs Cibik 40%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 30% vs Cibik 50%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch +1 · Cibik -3
Cibik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Matousch) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 1.57 / Cibik 2.25
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Cibik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13068273
Matousch1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 32 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 27 of 35
Cibik2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 68 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back25% 21 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch5wins
AwayCibik5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch83.3%5 of 6
AwayCibik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch6Cibik4n = 10Matousch took 6 of 10
S2Matousch5Cibik5n = 10split evenly
S3Matousch4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S4Matousch2Cibik4n = 6Cibik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschCibikM − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.034.7+0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 345 vs 298 / 66547.5%44.8%164 / 345 vs 298 / 665Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatouschMatousch 1.57/Cibik 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Matousch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 10:20S. Matousch—118791P. Cibik—51111113
LAug 4 · 16:20S. Matousch—1011981P. Cibik—12711113
LJul 24 · 13:50S. Matousch—9990P. Cibik—1111113
WJul 24 · 12:50S. Matousch—1111113P. Cibik—7760
WJul 21 · 17:24S. Matousch—11126113P. Cibik—6101171
LJul 21 · 14:20S. Matousch—611851P. Cibik—11811113
WJul 9 · 17:25S. Matousch—11211113P. Cibik—511551
WJul 9 · 14:20S. Matousch—118136133P. Cibik—9111111112
LJul 1 · 18:00S. Matousch—5990P. Cibik—1111113
WJul 1 · 14:20S. Matousch—1611113P. Cibik—14590
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 31 · 19:20S. Matousch2.2075111192L. Vich1.61111186113
P. Cibik10
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881LSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113LSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791
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