TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067229
Played Sep 3Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118114511511
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched — 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 85 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 65.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 13–20 Tomas Cerveny Jr Simon Matousch has won 13 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:57What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-20 in 33
Jr
Correct
gap of 7 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1366 vs Jr 1549
Jr
Correct
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 20% vs Jr 80%
Jr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 30% vs Jr 90%
Jr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -4 · Jr +1
Matousch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 2.63 / Jr 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Jr)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13067229
Matousch2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 18 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Jr1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 72 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it82% 54 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch3wins
AwayJr7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch25%1 of 4
AwayJr66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Matousch2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S3Matousch2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S4Matousch3Jr4n = 7Jr took 4 of 7
S5Matousch3Jr1n = 4Matousch took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschJrM − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.541.2−4.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschJrBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 343 vs 337 / 62047.5%54.4%163 / 343 vs 337 / 620Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrMatousch 2.63/Jr 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 11:20S. Matousch—1211149113T. Jr—106161162
LMay 28 · 06:55S. Matousch—1198111T. Jr—71111133
LFeb 24 · 08:55S. Matousch—45100T. Jr—1111123
LFeb 20 · 13:20S. Matousch—10780T. Jr—1211113
LFeb 17 · 09:50S. Matousch—115311112T. Jr—811116133
LFeb 4 · 14:25S. Matousch—11118101T. Jr—91311123
LDec 9 · 13:20S. Matousch—8880T. Jr—1111113
LDec 5 · 11:20S. Matousch—561151T. Jr—11118113
WNov 21 · 15:15S. Matousch—961111113T. Jr—11116982
WNov 21 · 12:40S. Matousch—811411113T. Jr—11711742
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 31 · 19:20S. Matousch2.2075111192L. Vich1.61111186113
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123WAug 30 · 19:20P. Cibik3.25712671T. Jr1.33111011113
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