TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13055052
Played Sep 1Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511118117119––
Simon Matousch
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Matousch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Simon Matousch at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 24–27 Simon Matousch Pavel Cibik has won 24 of their 51 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:55What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Matousch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-27 in 51
Matousch
Wrong
gap of 3 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1573 vs Matousch 1422
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 60% vs Matousch 40%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 60% vs Matousch 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik +2 · Matousch +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cibik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.83 / Matousch 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cibik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13055052
Cibik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Matousch1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik5wins
AwayMatousch5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik100%4 of 4
AwayMatousch83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik4Matousch6n = 10Matousch took 6 of 10
S2Cibik5Matousch5n = 10split evenly
S3Cibik6Matousch4n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S4Cibik4Matousch2n = 6Cibik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikMatouschC − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.735.0−0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 656 vs 163 / 34044.8%47.9%294 / 656 vs 163 / 340Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.83/Matousch 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik—51111113S. Matousch—118791
WAug 4 · 16:20P. Cibik—12711113S. Matousch—1011981
WJul 24 · 13:50P. Cibik—1111113S. Matousch—9990
LJul 24 · 12:50P. Cibik—7760S. Matousch—1111113
LJul 21 · 17:24P. Cibik—6101171S. Matousch—11126113
WJul 21 · 14:20P. Cibik—11811113S. Matousch—611851
LJul 9 · 17:25P. Cibik—511551S. Matousch—11211113
LJul 9 · 14:20P. Cibik—9111111112S. Matousch—118136133
WJul 1 · 18:00P. Cibik—1111113S. Matousch—5990
LJul 1 · 14:20P. Cibik—14590S. Matousch—1611113
P. Cibik10
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881LSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113LSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 31 · 19:20S. Matousch2.2075111192L. Vich1.61111186113
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