TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067175
Played Sep 3Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811611––––
Josef Vintr
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Josef Vintr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 56 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 55.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 8–3 Josef Vintr Josef Vintr has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cibik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Cibik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1495 vs Vintr 1507
Vintr
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 40% vs Vintr 80%
Vintr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 70% vs Vintr 50%
Cibik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik -1 · Vintr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vintr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.80 / Vintr 1.91
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Cibik)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13067175
Cibik1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 62 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it73% 44 of 60
Vintr1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 13 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik7wins
AwayVintr3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik100%5 of 5
AwayVintr60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik5Vintr5n = 10split evenly
S2Cibik4Vintr6n = 10Vintr took 6 of 10
S3Cibik9Vintr1n = 10Cibik took 9 of 10
S4Cibik3Vintr4n = 7Vintr took 4 of 7
S5Cibik3Vintr1n = 4Cibik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikVintrC − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.440.4+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikVintrBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 663 vs 39 / 7245%54.2%298 / 663 vs 39 / 72Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.80/Vintr 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vintr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik—109120J. Vintr—1211143
WSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik—6101311133J. Vintr—1112115112
WAug 14 · 17:50P. Cibik—61412113J. Vintr—11121091
LAug 14 · 14:20P. Cibik—13111110102J. Vintr—157912123
WJun 28 · 12:50P. Cibik—111211113J. Vintr—514961
WMay 10 · 17:55P. Cibik—1191111113J. Vintr—81191372
LMay 10 · 16:50P. Cibik—1081151J. Vintr—12119113
WMay 2 · 16:25P. Cibik—1211113J. Vintr—10690
WJan 22 · 11:50P. Cibik—11101110113J. Vintr—91251282
WJan 20 · 14:20P. Cibik—1111113J. Vintr—8880
P. Cibik10
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881LSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:50P. Cibik1.6711119123M. Nemec2.106511101
J. Vintr10
LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143LSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100WSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik1.80109120J. Vintr1.901211143WSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik1.736101311133J. Vintr2.001112115112WSep 1 · 10:50J. Rolik2.2559111162J. Vintr1.57111138113WAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch1.9581491182J. Vintr1.751112119113WAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:20J. Vintr2.10411971M. Juhasz1.6711711113
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