TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13056021
Played Sep 1Finished
Jakub Rolik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511911113118611
Josef Vintr
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:17 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJosef Vintr to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Josef Vintr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 86 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Josef Vintr at 59.7%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Rolik 2–2 Josef Vintr Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:17What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vintr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolik 1361 vs Vintr 1479
Vintr
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolik 40% vs Vintr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolik 60% vs Vintr 30%
Rolik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolik -2 · Vintr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vintr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vintr form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolik 2.25 / Vintr 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Vintr)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13056021
Rolik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 87 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back17% 11 of 64
Vintr1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 15 of 20
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeRolik2wins
AwayVintr2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVintr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolik1Vintr3n = 4Vintr took 3 of 4
S2Rolik2Vintr2n = 4split evenly
S3Rolik1Vintr3n = 4Vintr took 3 of 4
S4Rolik1Vintr2n = 3Vintr took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricRolikVintrR − VBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match41.244.8−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolikVintrBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 631 vs 36 / 6847.9%52.9%302 / 631 vs 36 / 68Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VintrRolik 2.25/Vintr 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Vintr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vintr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJun 18 · 15:20J. Rolik—14970J. Vintr—1611113
LApr 13 · 13:50J. Rolik—4911121J. Vintr—11119143
WApr 13 · 10:20J. Rolik—1111611123J. Vintr—991113102
WDec 19 · 13:50J. Rolik—911611113J. Vintr—11911582
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:20P. Cibik1.50117611113J. Rolik2.5091111982
J. Vintr10
LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143LSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100WSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113WSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik1.80109120J. Vintr1.901211143WSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik1.736101311133J. Vintr2.001112115112WAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch1.9581491182J. Vintr1.751112119113WAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:20J. Vintr2.10411971M. Juhasz1.6711711113
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