TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13072568
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Rolik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119119––––
Michal Nemec
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Rolik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 62 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Rolik at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Rolik 77–85 Michal Nemec Jakub Rolik has won 77 of their 162 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rolik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
77-85 in 162
Nemec
Wrong
gap of 8 in 162, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolik 1377 vs Nemec 1354
Rolik
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolik 60% vs Nemec 40%
Rolik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolik 50% vs Nemec 30%
Rolik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolik -1 · Nemec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rolik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolik 1.80 / Nemec 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rolik)+2.6pp
TT Cup · #13072568
Rolik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 85 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 53 of 64
Nemec1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 81 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back18% 24 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolik6wins
AwayNemec4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRolik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolik80%4 of 5
AwayNemec60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolik5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S2Rolik4Nemec6n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S3Rolik6Nemec4n = 10Rolik took 6 of 10
S4Rolik3Nemec4n = 7Nemec took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolikNemecR − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.038.6+0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolikNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 638 vs 377 / 77748%48.5%306 / 638 vs 377 / 777Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolikRolik 1.80/Nemec 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rolik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rolik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 10:20J. Rolik—14640M. Nemec—1611113
WAug 19 · 21:28J. Rolik—1313125113M. Nemec—1115101192
WAug 19 · 18:20J. Rolik—1311119113M. Nemec—15921162
WAug 18 · 19:50J. Rolik—12811113M. Nemec—1011861
LAug 10 · 20:20J. Rolik—117991M. Nemec—51111113
LAug 3 · 19:20J. Rolik—311871M. Nemec—11911113
WAug 2 · 11:50J. Rolik—11912113M. Nemec—7111061
LJul 29 · 19:20J. Rolik—86140M. Nemec—1111163
WJul 27 · 21:53J. Rolik—101111143M. Nemec—1298121
WJul 27 · 20:55J. Rolik—1111113M. Nemec—8580
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:20P. Cibik1.50117611113J. Rolik2.5091111982WSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123LSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482
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