TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085991
Played Sep 6Finished
Radek Zeman
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119811711––
Michal Nemec
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:57 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeRadek Zeman to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Zeman above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Radek Zeman at 69.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Radek Zeman 97–63 Michal Nemec Michal Nemec has won 63 of their 160 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zeman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
97-63 in 160
Zeman
Wrong
gap of 34 in 160, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1388 vs Nemec 1303
Zeman
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 60% vs Nemec 20%
Zeman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 40% vs Nemec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman -1 · Nemec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Zeman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 1.40 / Nemec 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Zeman)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13085991
Zeman1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 112 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it88% 66 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it76% 88 of 116
Nemec2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 81 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back17% 24 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman7wins
AwayNemec3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman85.7%6 of 7
AwayNemec66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman7Nemec3n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S2Zeman5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S3Zeman8Nemec2n = 10Zeman took 8 of 10
S4Zeman2Nemec6n = 8Nemec took 6 of 8
S5Zeman3Nemec1n = 4Zeman took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanNemecZ − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.637.5+4.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 612 vs 375 / 77852.8%48.2%323 / 612 vs 375 / 778Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanZeman 1.40/Nemec 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 20:50R. Zeman—1111113M. Nemec—8660
LAug 25 · 20:50R. Zeman—716681M. Nemec—111411113
WAug 23 · 16:20R. Zeman—115115123M. Nemec—911611102
LAug 21 · 21:23R. Zeman—9119121M. Nemec—11811143
WAug 21 · 20:20R. Zeman—117114113M. Nemec—71171152
WAug 20 · 20:20R. Zeman—1171110113M. Nemec—61151292
WAug 19 · 20:50R. Zeman—1711113M. Nemec—15970
LAug 16 · 10:50R. Zeman—11911742M. Nemec—611411113
WAug 13 · 20:55R. Zeman—81111113M. Nemec—114761
WAug 12 · 21:20R. Zeman—111211113M. Nemec—614471
R. Zeman10
WSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:20R. Zeman2.1071260Z. Vyskocil1.671114113LSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260WSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770WSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113LSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462LAug 30 · 21:24P. Cibik1.731211113R. Zeman2.0010060LAug 30 · 20:20P. Cibik1.7311121110123R. Zeman2.00914812102LAug 30 · 19:50Z. Vyskocil1.8011713113R. Zeman1.913111121
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123WSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191
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