TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076636
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012311911––––
Radek Zeman
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched — 79.9% is still 79.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Zeman to win
79.9%
79.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Radek Zeman below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Radek Zeman at 79.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 5–15 Radek Zeman Michal Kolbusovsky has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:29What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Zeman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-15 in 20
Zeman
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1379 vs Zeman 1409
Zeman
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 80% vs Zeman 0%
Kolbusovsky
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 50% vs Zeman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky +3 · Zeman -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Zeman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (0%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 4.33 / Zeman 1.20
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Zeman)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13076636
Kolbusovsky4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 56 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 51
Zeman1.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 111 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it89% 64 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it76% 86 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky2wins
AwayZeman8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky66.7%2 of 3
AwayZeman100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S2Kolbusovsky3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S3Kolbusovsky4Zeman6n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S4Kolbusovsky1Zeman4n = 5Zeman took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyZemanK − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.137.2−7.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 455 vs 324 / 61747.7%52.5%217 / 455 vs 324 / 617Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanKolbusovsky 4.33/Zeman 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.9%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky—10390R. Zeman—1211113
LJul 24 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky—6560R. Zeman—1111113
LJul 11 · 20:55M. Kolbusovsky—511551R. Zeman—11711113
LJun 16 · 14:50M. Kolbusovsky—7121141R. Zeman—11148113
LMay 31 · 15:50M. Kolbusovsky—6960R. Zeman—1111113
LMay 24 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—57110R. Zeman—1111133
LMay 17 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky—515261R. Zeman—111311113
WMay 3 · 17:49M. Kolbusovsky—1111113R. Zeman—4950
LMay 3 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky—119139122R. Zeman—6111111143
WFeb 16 · 19:50M. Kolbusovsky—11811133R. Zeman—7117111
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132LSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00741111123P. Cibik1.36111179102LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky2.251013781S. Matousch1.57121111113LAug 11 · 08:55M. Kolbusovsky3.251081181J. Vintr1.3312119113LAug 11 · 07:55M. Kolbusovsky2.5011271192O. Hula1.50511116113
R. Zeman10
WSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:20R. Zeman2.1071260Z. Vyskocil1.671114113LSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113LSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260WSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462LAug 30 · 21:24P. Cibik1.731211113R. Zeman2.0010060LAug 30 · 20:20P. Cibik1.7311121110123R. Zeman2.00914812102LAug 30 · 19:50Z. Vyskocil1.8011713113R. Zeman1.913111121
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