TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13066424
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
1.93
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118511118115
Pavel Cibik
Away
1.78
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 59.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 5–8 Pavel Cibik Michal Kolbusovsky has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Cibik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Cibik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1312 vs Cibik 1530
Cibik
Wrong
both rated, 218 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 20% vs Cibik 80%
Cibik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 20% vs Cibik 70%
Cibik
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky +1 · Cibik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cibik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 1.93 / Cibik 1.78
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cibik)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13066424
Kolbusovsky1.93
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 54 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Cibik1.78
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 61 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it75% 43 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky3wins
AwayCibik7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky50%2 of 4
AwayCibik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S2Kolbusovsky3Cibik7n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S3Kolbusovsky4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S4Kolbusovsky3Cibik5n = 8Cibik took 5 of 8
S5Kolbusovsky3Cibik3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyCibikK − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.144.3−6.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 454 vs 298 / 66247.8%45%217 / 454 vs 298 / 662Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikKolbusovsky 1.93/Cibik 1.78
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky—741111123P. Cibik—111179102
LJul 24 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky—410131172P. Cibik—1112116113
LJul 15 · 14:00M. Kolbusovsky—1110111062P. Cibik—812912113
LJul 15 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky—9560P. Cibik—1111113
LJul 14 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky—811251P. Cibik—11911113
LJul 8 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—611891P. Cibik—11811113
WJun 30 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—116811113P. Cibik—71111882
LJun 29 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—6950P. Cibik—1111113
LJun 26 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—118116132P. Cibik—711811153
WJun 25 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—111267113P. Cibik—710111172
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132LSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00741111123P. Cibik1.36111179102LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky2.251013781S. Matousch1.57121111113LAug 11 · 08:55M. Kolbusovsky3.251081181J. Vintr1.3312119113LAug 11 · 07:55M. Kolbusovsky2.5011271192O. Hula1.50511116113
P. Cibik10
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881LSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113WSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123LSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00741111123P. Cibik1.36111179102
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