TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063885
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411117511118911
Michal Cesak
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 77.1% is still 77.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
77.1%
77.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Michal Cesak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Michal Cesak at 77.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 2–4 Michal Cesak Michal Kolbusovsky has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:26What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Cesak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Cesak
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1250 vs Cesak 1511
Cesak
Correct
both rated, 262 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 40% vs Cesak 20%
Kolbusovsky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 20% vs Cesak 50%
Cesak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky +1 · Cesak -4
Cesak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Cesak) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesak form (20%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 3.50 / Cesak 1.28
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Cesak)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13063885
Kolbusovsky3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 54 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Cesak1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 48 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it72% 36 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky2wins
AwayCesak4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderCesak leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky33.3%1 of 3
AwayCesak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky3Cesak3n = 6split evenly
S2Kolbusovsky3Cesak3n = 6split evenly
S3Kolbusovsky2Cesak4n = 6Cesak took 4 of 6
S4Kolbusovsky1Cesak4n = 5Cesak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyCesakK − CBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match34.841.2−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyCesakBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 453 vs 104 / 18047.7%57.8%216 / 453 vs 104 / 180Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CesakKolbusovsky 3.50/Cesak 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.3%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cesak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJun 16 · 16:50M. Kolbusovsky—711571M. Cesak—11611113
LMay 22 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—126391M. Cesak—101111113
WMay 15 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky—128168113M. Cesak—1011141162
LMar 18 · 17:50M. Kolbusovsky—11133602M. Cesak—8111111113
LFeb 10 · 17:20M. Kolbusovsky—7950M. Cesak—1111113
WJan 1 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky—71111113M. Cesak—116471
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171WSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282LSep 4 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky4.3310390R. Zeman1.201211113WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182WSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38111158113M. Nemec1.5368111132WSep 2 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00741111123P. Cibik1.36111179102LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky2.251013781S. Matousch1.57121111113LAug 11 · 08:55M. Kolbusovsky3.251081181J. Vintr1.3312119113LAug 11 · 07:55M. Kolbusovsky2.5011271192O. Hula1.50511116113
M. Cesak10
WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123LSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec2.7513117113M. Cesak1.401191131LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741WAug 26 · 14:50M. Cesak1.73711911113M. Juhasz2.0011611582WAug 16 · 13:49R. Zeman2.0011117572M. Cesak1.73261111113WAug 16 · 12:50M. Nemec2.6375110M. Cesak1.441111133LAug 16 · 11:50M. Cesak1.5310760R. Zeman2.381211113
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