TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017709
Played Aug 26Finished
Josef Vintr
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116116116––––
Michal Cesak
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:33 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingJosef Vintr above · Michal Cesak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Michal Cesak at 56.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Josef Vintr 2–2 Michal Cesak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:33What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cesak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vintr 1431 vs Cesak 1580
Cesak
Wrong
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vintr 0% vs Cesak 60%
Cesak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vintr 10% vs Cesak 70%
Cesak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vintr -5 · Cesak -1
Vintr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Cesak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vintr form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVintr 2.00 / Cesak 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Cesak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13017709
Vintr2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 11 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back27% 4 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Cesak1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 47 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVintr2wins
AwayCesak2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vintr2Cesak2n = 4split evenly
S2Vintr2Cesak2n = 4split evenly
S3Vintr4Cesak0n = 4Vintr took 4 of 4
S4Vintr1Cesak2n = 3Cesak took 2 of 3
S5Vintr1Cesak2n = 3Cesak took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricVintrCesakV − CBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match44.844.5+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVintrCesakBasisWin rate · lifetime34 / 66 vs 104 / 18051.5%57.8%34 / 66 vs 104 / 180Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CesakVintr 2.00/Cesak 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vintr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJun 18 · 18:00J. Vintr—961115102M. Cesak—1111813123
WJun 18 · 14:50J. Vintr—1111118123M. Cesak—137811102
LJun 14 · 10:50J. Vintr—121117112M. Cesak—1011611133
WMay 10 · 15:20J. Vintr—1111113M. Cesak—8870
J. Vintr10
LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143LSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100WSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113WSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik1.80109120J. Vintr1.901211143WSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik1.736101311133J. Vintr2.001112115112WSep 1 · 10:50J. Rolik2.2559111162J. Vintr1.57111138113WAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch1.9581491182J. Vintr1.751112119113LAug 26 · 15:20J. Vintr2.10411971M. Juhasz1.6711711113
M. Cesak10
WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113LSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec2.7513117113M. Cesak1.401191131LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741WAug 26 · 14:50M. Cesak1.73711911113M. Juhasz2.0011611582WAug 16 · 13:49R. Zeman2.0011117572M. Cesak1.73261111113WAug 16 · 12:50M. Nemec2.6375110M. Cesak1.441111133LAug 16 · 11:50M. Cesak1.5310760R. Zeman2.381211113
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