TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017776
Played Aug 26Finished
Michal Cesak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711116911115118
Martin Juhasz
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Cesak above · Martin Juhasz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Michal Cesak at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Michal Cesak 5–5 Martin Juhasz Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cesak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cesak 1611 vs Juhasz 1459
Cesak
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cesak 80% vs Juhasz 40%
Cesak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cesak 70% vs Juhasz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cesak +2 · Juhasz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cesak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCesak 1.73 / Juhasz 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cesak)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13017776
Cesak1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 47 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Juhasz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 9 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back38% 6 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCesak5wins
AwayJuhasz5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCesak42.9%3 of 7
AwayJuhasz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cesak7Juhasz3n = 10Cesak took 7 of 10
S2Cesak5Juhasz5n = 10split evenly
S3Cesak5Juhasz5n = 10split evenly
S4Cesak5Juhasz2n = 7Cesak took 5 of 7
S5Cesak1Juhasz4n = 5Juhasz took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCesakJuhaszC − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.335.7+3.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCesakJuhaszBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 178 vs 60 / 11357.9%53.1%103 / 178 vs 60 / 113Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CesakCesak 1.73/Juhasz 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cesak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 17:50M. Cesak—91111113M. Juhasz—116861
WAug 6 · 16:50M. Cesak—1111113M. Juhasz—1580
LJul 21 · 17:55M. Cesak—118101162M. Juhasz—411129113
WJul 21 · 14:50M. Cesak—1111113M. Juhasz—6380
WJul 15 · 17:55M. Cesak—11811113M. Juhasz—311861
LJul 15 · 15:25M. Cesak—11771172M. Juhasz—611118113
WJul 9 · 17:55M. Cesak—911113123M. Juhasz—118411102
LJul 9 · 14:50M. Cesak—3890M. Juhasz—1111113
LJul 1 · 17:30M. Cesak—11116962M. Juhasz—761111113
LJul 1 · 14:50M. Cesak—137511102M. Juhasz—1111115123
M. Cesak10
WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113LSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec2.7513117113M. Cesak1.401191131LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660LAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3.0031111113M. Cesak1.36118741WAug 16 · 13:49R. Zeman2.0011117572M. Cesak1.73261111113WAug 16 · 12:50M. Nemec2.6375110M. Cesak1.441111133LAug 16 · 11:50M. Cesak1.5310760R. Zeman2.381211113
M. Juhasz10
LSep 2 · 22:03L. Vich1.671711123M. Juhasz2.10158100LSep 2 · 20:55L. Vich1.8311113113M. Juhasz1.83891181LSep 2 · 20:25T. Barsa1.7313119133M. Juhasz2.0011911111LSep 2 · 19:25M. Juhasz1.73511881Z. Vyskocil2.0011611113LAug 31 · 22:25C. Kratochvil1.9012811123M. Juhasz1.8010119101WAug 31 · 20:55M. Juhasz2.2011411113T. Barsa1.61611961LAug 31 · 19:55M. Juhasz1.6111128141C. Kratochvil2.2051411163WAug 31 · 18:55M. Juhasz2.001112713113Z. Vyskocil1.73610111582WAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 16:50M. Juhasz1.408640S. Matousch2.751111113
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