TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017724
Played Aug 26Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
311118117114––
Michal Cesak
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Michal Cesak below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Michal Cesak at 75.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 5–13 Michal Cesak Simon Matousch has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:42What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cesak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-13 in 18
Cesak
Wrong
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1432 vs Cesak 1525
Cesak
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 60% vs Cesak 80%
Cesak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 50% vs Cesak 80%
Cesak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch +1 · Cesak +3
Cesak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Cesak) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 3.00 / Cesak 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Cesak)+4.3pp
TT Cup · #13017724
Matousch3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 14 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Cesak1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 47 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch1wins
AwayCesak9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCesak leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatouschn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCesak87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch2Cesak8n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10
S2Matousch4Cesak6n = 10Cesak took 6 of 10
S3Matousch2Cesak8n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10
S4Matousch5Cesak1n = 6Matousch took 5 of 6
S5Matousch0Cesak5n = 5Cesak took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschCesakM − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.741.8−6.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschCesakBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 335 vs 104 / 18248.1%57.1%161 / 335 vs 104 / 182Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CesakMatousch 3.00/Cesak 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.1%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Matousch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch—31111113M. Cesak—118741
LAug 6 · 15:20S. Matousch—71361162M. Cesak—1111113113
LAug 4 · 17:19S. Matousch—101270M. Cesak—1214113
LAug 4 · 15:20S. Matousch—11111016142M. Cesak—1371214163
LJul 21 · 15:50S. Matousch—11611752M. Cesak—811611113
LJul 9 · 16:20S. Matousch—6850M. Cesak—1111113
LJul 1 · 16:20S. Matousch—81171192M. Cesak—119111113
LJun 18 · 15:50S. Matousch—91260M. Cesak—1114113
LApr 2 · 15:50S. Matousch—8530M. Cesak—1111113
LSep 4 · 16:10S. Matousch—11751152M. Cesak—811119113
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113
M. Cesak10
WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113LSep 2 · 14:50M. Nemec2.7513117113M. Cesak1.401191131LAug 26 · 17:20M. Juhasz1.8051111113M. Cesak1.91115991LAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660WAug 26 · 14:50M. Cesak1.73711911113M. Juhasz2.0011611582WAug 16 · 13:49R. Zeman2.0011117572M. Cesak1.73261111113WAug 16 · 12:50M. Nemec2.6375110M. Cesak1.441111133LAug 16 · 11:50M. Cesak1.5310760R. Zeman2.381211113
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