TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13059026
Played Sep 1Finished
Jakub Rolik
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81111714128111210
Simon Matousch
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Rolik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Rolik above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 104 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jakub Rolik at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Rolik 24–26 Simon Matousch Jakub Rolik has won 24 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:22What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Matousch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-26 in 50
Matousch
Wrong
gap of 2 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolik 1386 vs Matousch 1366
Rolik
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolik 20% vs Matousch 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolik 50% vs Matousch 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolik -1 · Matousch -3
Matousch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Matousch) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolik 2.20 / Matousch 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Matousch)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13059026
Rolik2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 87 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back17% 11 of 64
Matousch1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 32 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolik5wins
AwayMatousch5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolik75%3 of 4
AwayMatousch66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolik4Matousch6n = 10Matousch took 6 of 10
S2Rolik5Matousch5n = 10split evenly
S3Rolik5Matousch5n = 10split evenly
S4Rolik3Matousch5n = 8Matousch took 5 of 8
S5Rolik3Matousch2n = 5Rolik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolikMatouschR − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.642.0−3.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolikMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 635 vs 163 / 34347.9%47.5%304 / 635 vs 163 / 343Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatouschRolik 2.20/Matousch 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Matousch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rolik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik—811148123S. Matousch—1171211102
WSep 1 · 11:50J. Rolik—11119153S. Matousch—7611131
LAug 6 · 17:20J. Rolik—8350S. Matousch—1111113
LAug 6 · 16:20J. Rolik—61111142S. Matousch—116811113
LJul 24 · 11:50J. Rolik—11911982S. Matousch—911711113
LJun 29 · 12:20J. Rolik—9710S. Matousch—1111113
WJun 18 · 17:29J. Rolik—15118113S. Matousch—1371161
WJun 18 · 14:20J. Rolik—711611113S. Matousch—11911962
LMay 29 · 06:55J. Rolik—971151S. Matousch—11118113
WDec 3 · 15:20J. Rolik—1110117113S. Matousch—81261192
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482LSep 1 · 12:20P. Cibik1.50117611113J. Rolik2.5091111982WSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 31 · 19:20S. Matousch2.2075111192L. Vich1.61111186113
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