TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13056027
Played Sep 1Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119711611119118
Jakub Rolik
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:15 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Jakub Rolik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 94 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 65.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 10–6 Jakub Rolik Jakub Rolik has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Cibik
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1581 vs Rolik 1368
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 213 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 80% vs Rolik 40%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 70% vs Rolik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik +4 · Rolik +1
Cibik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.50 / Rolik 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Cibik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13056027
Cibik1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 58 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it75% 42 of 56
Rolik2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 87 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back17% 11 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik8wins
AwayRolik2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik83.3%5 of 6
AwayRolik25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik6Rolik4n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S2Cibik7Rolik3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S3Cibik7Rolik3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S4Cibik5Rolik4n = 9Cibik took 5 of 9
S5Cibik3Rolik2n = 5Cibik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikRolikC − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.239.7+5.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikRolikBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 657 vs 303 / 63344.9%47.9%295 / 657 vs 303 / 633Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.50/Rolik 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 15 · 12:50P. Cibik—9111113113J. Rolik—11461582
WJul 14 · 12:50P. Cibik—81111113J. Rolik—118661
WJul 12 · 12:50P. Cibik—111494113J. Rolik—612111132
LJul 8 · 13:50P. Cibik—811911112J. Rolik—119117133
WJul 8 · 11:50P. Cibik—111011113J. Rolik—812981
WJun 30 · 13:30P. Cibik—101111153J. Rolik—1295131
WJun 30 · 11:50P. Cibik—1111113J. Rolik—6880
WJun 29 · 11:50P. Cibik—12911113J. Rolik—1011671
WJun 28 · 11:50P. Cibik—119118113J. Rolik—91171192
LJun 26 · 14:00P. Cibik—11116852J. Rolik—791111113
P. Cibik10
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik1.8091111682Z. Vyskocil1.91119711113WSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2.1078110Z. Vyskocil1.671111133WSep 6 · 10:20R. Zeman2.10141380P. Cibik1.671615113WSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123WSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113LSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881LSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113LSep 2 · 18:00M. Kolbusovsky1.93911511113P. Cibik1.7811811852WSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102WSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153
Upcoming Matches
P. Cibik1 of 1 neutral
J. Rolik
Nothing scheduled
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