TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076657
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1137111113911––
Jakub Rolik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Rolik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Jakub Rolik below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Rolik at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 85–80 Jakub Rolik Jakub Rolik has won 80 of their 165 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:29What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rolik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
85-80 in 165
Nemec
Wrong
gap of 5 in 165, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1320 vs Rolik 1410
Rolik
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 40% vs Rolik 80%
Rolik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 30% vs Rolik 60%
Rolik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec -2 · Rolik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rolik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 1.91 / Rolik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rolik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13076657
Nemec1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 81 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back18% 24 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 75
Rolik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 85 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec3wins
AwayRolik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRolik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec66.7%2 of 3
AwayRolik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec3Rolik7n = 10Rolik took 7 of 10
S2Nemec5Rolik5n = 10split evenly
S3Nemec5Rolik5n = 10split evenly
S4Nemec6Rolik2n = 8Nemec took 6 of 8
S5Nemec0Rolik4n = 4Rolik took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecRolikN − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.542.0−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecRolikBasisWin rate · lifetime377 / 779 vs 308 / 64048.4%48.1%377 / 779 vs 308 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolikNemec 1.91/Rolik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Rolik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rolik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 17:55M. Nemec—10990J. Rolik—1211113
LSep 3 · 14:20M. Nemec—911111482J. Rolik—1113512113
LAug 26 · 19:50M. Nemec—105111112J. Rolik—121189113
WAug 24 · 10:20M. Nemec—1611113J. Rolik—14640
LAug 19 · 21:28M. Nemec—1115101192J. Rolik—1313125113
LAug 19 · 18:20M. Nemec—15921162J. Rolik—1311119113
LAug 18 · 19:50M. Nemec—1011861J. Rolik—12811113
WAug 10 · 20:20M. Nemec—51111113J. Rolik—117991
WAug 3 · 19:20M. Nemec—11911113J. Rolik—311871
LAug 2 · 11:50M. Nemec—7111061J. Rolik—11912113
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123WSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:20P. Cibik1.50117611113J. Rolik2.5091111982WSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153
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