TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071353
Played Sep 3Finished
Jaroslav Brynych
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111197111012––
Michal Nemec
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:28 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Brynych above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Michal Nemec at 57.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Brynych 4–17 Michal Nemec Jaroslav Brynych has won 4 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:28What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nemec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-17 in 21
Nemec
Correct
gap of 13 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brynych 1390 vs Nemec 1340
Brynych
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brynych 60% vs Nemec 20%
Brynych
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brynych 50% vs Nemec 20%
Brynych
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brynych -1 · Nemec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Nemec) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrynych 2.10 / Nemec 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Nemec)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13071353
Brynych2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog26% won 11 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Nemec1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 89 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it79% 60 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrynych3wins
AwayNemec7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrynych50%2 of 4
AwayNemec83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brynych4Nemec6n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S2Brynych3Nemec7n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S3Brynych5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S4Brynych2Nemec6n = 8Nemec took 6 of 8
S5Brynych2Nemec2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrynychNemecB − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.543.0−4.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrynychNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 112 vs 376 / 77642.9%48.5%48 / 112 vs 376 / 776Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecBrynych 2.10/Nemec 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 13:20J. Brynych—911125113M. Nemec—119101162
WAug 16 · 11:20J. Brynych—1191011123M. Nemec—811126102
LJul 26 · 11:20J. Brynych—61280M. Nemec—1114113
LJul 19 · 13:55J. Brynych—81112582M. Nemec—1191011113
WJul 19 · 12:50J. Brynych—11811133M. Nemec—7117111
LJul 6 · 11:50J. Brynych—118591M. Nemec—91111113
LJul 5 · 06:50J. Brynych—7690M. Nemec—1111113
LJul 3 · 15:50J. Brynych—911116122M. Nemec—114911143
LJun 12 · 15:20J. Brynych—126481M. Nemec—101111113
LJun 6 · 16:25J. Brynych—881471M. Nemec—111112113
J. Brynych10
LSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113LSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113WAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161WAug 28 · 12:20O. Sebek2.63411461J. Brynych1.4411711113LAug 28 · 11:50J. Rolik1.911111113J. Brynych1.808440LAug 28 · 10:50J. Brynych2.20711111162F. Musil1.61111348113WAug 16 · 13:20J. Brynych2.20911125113M. Nemec1.61119101162LAug 16 · 12:20J. Brynych3.001790R. Zeman1.361111113WAug 16 · 11:20J. Brynych2.381191011123M. Nemec1.53811126102
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LAug 16 · 13:20J. Brynych2.20911125113M. Nemec1.61119101162LAug 16 · 11:20J. Brynych2.381191011123M. Nemec1.53811126102
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